Chinese perspectives on Africa’s late industrialization

Africa and China’s cooperation recedes hundreds of centuries back. Over 600 years ago, East Africa was one of the areas that cross-pollinated with Chinese civilization through interactions with the voyages of Zheng He, one of China’s greatest navigators. Zheng’s navigations to Africa manifested the Chinese traditional philosophy of harmony, a notion that still resonates in Africa-China relations today. I started with a cursory narration of Zheng He’s trips to Africa to lay out a historical context of these two ancient civilizations’ partnership in view of discussing the delayed industrialization in Africa, yet inspired by the quick modernization in China.

We are now in the first quarter of the 21st century – an age increasingly taken over by the fourth industrial revolution, and Africa remains largely a raw material production instead of an industrial production continent. Whereas we make up 18% of the global population, we contribute less than 3% to the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

I don’t intend to sound blameful of Africans and African leaders for Africa’s current development burdens as is commonly done by those who reason by analogy. But I cannot escape describing the depressing political anatomy of Africa currently. I believe that Africa is not on its own path to development, since all factors determinant of this have been overshadowed by Western hegemony. In an attempt to walk in the footsteps of Western countries by mimicking their current governance standards, Africa seems to have failed to “catch up” yet the material crisis at hand is that we are still trying to heal from the past, not to catch up with the future.

Chinese perspectives on Africa’s industrial development are key because of the comparative analysis they offer. China has recently trodden the path that Africa is on. Whereas China greatly learnt or reverse-engineered industrial processes from the West, the Chinese retained control over the vision and character of where their country was headed. As for Africa, the elite-capture by Western ideological persuasion and hegemonic institutions like the IMF and World Bank still obtains. Even when Africans genuinely intend to design policies that respond to domestic realities, they are still fraught with Western epistemic prejudices.

The first step to realising our industrial transformation is taking cognizance of who we are and where we want to go. The Chinese are so sure of who they are and where they are headed. They never blink off their course. As for Africans, our social, economic and political agendas remain dictated from Europe or North America. Whereas these agendas were violently determined during colonialism, the legacy of it is that we sincerely believe them and serve their realisation almost willingly today. The average African elite suffers a Stockholm syndrome which makes him/her a subconscious missionary of Western views about Africa which constrains our agency in mapping our development path. We need to decouple from this mental capture in how we view ourselves and our governments if we are to start domestically industrializing our economies. If an African entrepreneur like Joseph Magandaazi Yiga (Jomayi) is struggling, we need to help them save their businesses even if they individually get punished for their legal liabilities. We shouldn’t think of successful African business people like Hamis Kiggundu as fraudsters. This is purely a colonial-victim mindset.

In just 25 years, China sat on the drawing board and designed and executed a policy that saw it become an industrial powerhouse. Had they viewed themselves through Western lenses, all knowledge would guide them on a path that seeks industrialization across a period of not less than a century.  Africa should forget industrialization if all our central banks and ministries of finance remain controlled by Bretton Woods knowledge. We rather should sit on the drawing board as China did, and fix our troubles ourselves.

This does not mean that things will work in Africa as they worked in China. But it guarantees that for the first time, things will work out on our terms and we shall dictate our path to development.

We must also exploit the market we have of 1.4 billion people. Whereas we lack a price-competitive manufacturing labour-force, we can build momentum for a skilled work-force by internally trading and consuming each other’s goods. Research by the Harvard Business Review reveals that the share of intra-African exports as a percentage of total African exports is 17%, which is far below the 69% recorded for Europe and 59% for Asia. We cannot advance if we never trade with each other because we are still in the nascent stages of industrialization to capably compete at the global market.

Poor infrastructure in Africa must urgently be improved to reduce the cost of trade. Fluency in market logistics is the path along which industrialization happens. Africa should develop its seaports, roads, airports and railway lines to enable commerce. If it remains more expensive to trade with each other because of the disastrous infrastructure on the continent, we shall remain consumer colonies of other continents’ exports. We should maximumly exploit the Belt and Road Initiative to develop our infrastructure.

One factor has been constant in Africa’s underdevelopment – Western interference. There has been an adverse failure of Western development prescriptions for Africa. I don’t understand why we continue to follow such prescriptions to no avail. Western aid and its attendant ideological hegemony continue to promote economic and policy dependence in Africa. If we never seize control of our economies and have autonomy in thinking and designing policies for our continent, how shall we control our future? In whose hands shall Africa’s destiny lie?

The author is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

nnandakizito@dwcug.org

 

Primary Health Care and Health  Infrastructure Development: Lessons From China

Attention; in the relentless pursuit of progress, a nation teeters on the brink of stagnation when its healthcare infrastructure falters. As the sickly grip tightens, the nation’s capacity to evolve, innovate, and propel itself forward dwindles.

An ailing healthcare system is not merely a burden, it is an indication of systemic decline, casting a dark shadow over the promise of a brighter future.

In the pursuit of progress and economic advancement, nations often overlook a fundamental pilar of development: healthcare infrastructure. However, the consequences of neglecting this vital aspect of society are dire and far-reaching, threatening the prospects of a nation’s growth and prosperity.

As the heartbeat of a nation’s well-being, healthcare infrastructure serves as the backbone upon which the health and productivity of its citizens rely. And, failure to invest in this critical foundation can unleash a torrent of devastating effects, reverberating through every facet of society.

First and foremost, inadequate healthcare infrastructure leads to a stark reality of inaccessibility to essential medical services for a significant portion of the population.

I assure you, without proper facilities, resources, and personnel, individuals are left vulnerable to the ravages of preventable diseases and untreated conditions, and as a result it becomes a heavy toll on both human lives and economic vitality.

The economic burden of poor health outcomes is profound, draining off resources and stifling growth at every turn. Skyrocketing healthcare costs, coupled with the loss of productivity due to illness, place immense strain on household finances and national budgets alike. Scares resources that could fuel progress in education, infrastructure, and innovation are diverted to address health crises, perpetuating a cycle of stagnation and underdevelopment.

The neglect of healthcare infrastructure strikes at the heart of human capital development, the cornerstone of sustainable progress. A populace plagued by poor health is one deprived of its full potential, with reduced life expectancy, compromised cognitive abilities, and diminished educational attainment stifling the aspirations of generations to come.

On the global stage, the repercussions of neglecting healthcare infrastructure echo far beyond national borders. In an interconnected world where investment and talent flow freely, nations with robust healthcare systems emerge as beacons of stability and opportunity. On the contrary, those marred by neglect face dwindling prospects for foreign investment and skilled labor.

For a nation like Uganda, the consequences of a deficient healthcare system reverberate across every aspect of society, profoundly impacting its development trajectory.

Without adequate access to medical care, preventable illnesses become barriers to productivity, leading to increased absenteeism and diminished economic output.

A robust healthcare infrastructure is indispensable for nurturing human capital and enhancing productivity, accessible healthcare services ensure that individuals remain healthy and productive, minimising absenteeism due to preventable illnesses and enabling workforce participation. Healthy individuals, in turn, contribute to higher levels of productivity, driving economic growth and prosperity.

The warning bell tolls loudly for African nations that turn a blind eye to the imperative of healthcare infrastructure. To ignore this call is to gamble with the future of the nation, as we stand at the crossroads of progress let us heed to this warning.

In the archives of healthcare evolution, China’s journey stands out as a fascinating tale of transformation and triumph. And it offers lessons for Uganda and all African countries aspiring to leap into a brighter future.

The completion of iconic projects like the Shanghai Pudong New Area People’s Hospital within a mere two years, underscores the importance of prioritising infrastructure investment. The lesson to learn here is that by channeling resources into building hospitals and clinics, aiming to enhance accessibility and quality of healthcare services within a defined timeline Uganda can emulate this success.

Embracing healthcare technology by China, including telemedicine and electronic health records (EHRs), has revolutionised healthcare delivery, particularly in remote areas. To replicate this success, Uganda must leverage technology to bridge geographical gaps in healthcare access, and set a target for nationwide coverage at least within two years.

By China collaborating with private entities, such as Alibaba Group’s healthcare initiatives the potential of public-private partnerships has been highlighted in driving healthcare innovation and expansion. Uganda can harness the resources and expertise of private sectors partners to accelerate healthcare projects, aimed to launch joint initiatives within a defined timeframe.

Strengthening primary care infrastructure is a cornerstone of China’s Health policy, by investing in community health centers and promoting primary care services, aimed at providing a comprehensive and preventive healthcare closer to where people live has reduced the burden on tertiary care facilities and improves overall health outcomes.

China acknowledges regional disparities in healthcare infrastructure, highlighting the need for Uganda to implement targeted initiatives to improve rural and remote areas for equitable healthcare access. This is evidenced by China’s support to our health sector with China funded Naguru hospital also known as China-Uganda Frienship Hospital being a key example.

China’s construction of emergency hospitals, such as the Huoshenshan Hospital in Wuhan, in a matter of days demonstrated its ability to rapidly scale up healthcare infrastructure to respond to the crisis, providing critical care to COVID-19 patients while reducing strain on existing facilities. Uganda should learn from China’s example by prioritising proactive and coordinated actions while investing in strong healthcare infrastructure.

A reminder; in the tapestry of international relations, amidst the dynamic currents of global cooperation, one remarkable alliance that emerges is China’s unwavering commitment to Africa’s infrastructure advancement.

It is a symphony of solidarity, a testament to mutual respect, and a beacon of hope for progress.

China’s support in establishment and construction of the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention is a reminder of a reliable partner when it comes to Africa’s efforts in building a strong health system. Today, the centre is playing a leading role in supporting public health initiatives of member states and strengthening capacity of their health institutions to deal with disease threats. The Addis Ababa Fistula Hospital and the China-Angola Friendship Hospital in Luanda are monuments of this unwavering dedication to African’s healthcare advancement, these are tangible testaments to a commitment to fostering progress and prosperity across the continent.

Another paramount reminder is that development hinges on the strength of its human capital. A thriving populace, kept afloat by robust healthcare and wellness initiatives, is the catalyst for transformation growth. China’s remarkable progress stands as a testament to this principle.

Let us embrace this powerful reminder of unity, recognising its potential to reshape landscapes, empower communities, and foster a brighter future for generations to come.

Salim Abila Asuman is a research fellow at the Sino-Uganda Research Centre.

 

China’s Collaboration Propels Uganda’s Internet Revolution: A Tale of Technological Transformation

By Yasiri J. Kasango

In recent years, Uganda has embarked on a journey towards digital transformation, with a strategic partnership with China serving as a catalyst for revolutionising the nation’s internet landscape. This collaboration, driven by a vision to bridge the digital divide and foster inclusive growth, has become a beacon of connectivity, propelling Uganda towards a future defined by innovation and economic prosperity.

At the core of Uganda’s digital revolution lie the monumental National Data Transmission Backbone Infrastructure (NBI) and Electronic Government Infrastructure (EGI) projects, spearheaded by China’s Huawei Technologies. This transformative initiative has witnessed the laying of fiber optic cables across Uganda, connecting major towns and government entities into a cohesive digital network. Funded in part by a $106 million loan from the Export-Import Bank of China, this infrastructure backbone has laid the foundation for Uganda’s digital future, facilitating seamless connectivity and enabling access to vital online services.

Dr. Aminah Zawedde, the Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of ICT and National Guidance, highlighted the significant progress made in Uganda’s telecommunications and ICT industries. In January 2024, Uganda boasted 13.3 million internet users, with an internet penetration rate of 27 percent. Dr. Zawedde emphasised that such advancements accelerate Uganda’s digital transformation agenda, improving communication and reducing the cost of doing business.

Moreover, the launch of Uganda’s Digital Transformation Roadmap in August 2023, anchored on the Uganda Vision 2040, underscores the country’s commitment to harnessing the abundant opportunities within the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector. The roadmap aims to strengthen the implementation of enabling policies and laws to accelerate Uganda’s Digital Revolution, providing an overarching framework for a well-connected Uganda that leverages various technologies.

The Ministry of ICT and National Guidance’s implementation of the NBI/EGI project has been instrumental in connecting major towns and government departments to an optical fiber cable-based network. Dr. Zawedde noted that over 12,000 kilometers of optical fiber cable have been laid across the country, laying the groundwork for further expansion and connectivity.

“Through this project, the laying of over 12,000 km of optical fiber cable across the country has been achieved,” said Zawede.

China’s technical and financial support has been pivotal in accelerating Uganda’s ICT development, according to Ugandan experts and officials. Kwame Rugunda, chairman of the Blockchain Association of Uganda, highlighted the critical role played by Chinese companies in establishing the core infrastructure of ICT. He emphasised the importance of continued collaboration and support from China for Uganda’s technological advancement.

“The core infrastructure of ICT is where the Chinese play a critical role, the backbone upon which everything else is built,” said Kwame Rugunda, chairman of the Blockchain Association of Uganda, in a recent interview with Xinhua.

John Nasasira, head of a national task force advising the government on emerging technologies, stressed the importance of connectivity across the country for leveraging ICT as an enabler for economic development. Nasasira emphasised Uganda’s reliance on technical expertise from countries like China as it strives to develop its ICT infrastructure.

Robin Bai, Chief Technical Officer of ZTE Uganda, discussed Uganda’s progress in adopting 3G and 4G technologies, with plans underway to launch 5G technology trials. Bai highlighted the role of Chinese companies in advancing Uganda’s ICT capabilities and bridging the digital divide.

In rural Uganda, where internet penetration remains relatively low, initiatives like Huawei’s DigiTruck project are making significant strides in promoting digital inclusion and empowerment. The DigiTruck, a mobile training hub, travels across regions, training youth, women, and small business owners in e-commerce and online research. Sandra Apio, a young farmer in the Katakwi District, expressed optimism about accessing online markets for her produce, thanks to the digital skills she acquired through the DigiTruck program.

“I am proud to say that the Huawei DigiTruck project plans to benefit over 10,000 people in a span of three years,” Yi Junsong, subsidiary board director of Huawei Uganda, said. “We hope that those who have benefited from these skills in this cohort can use them to improve their livelihoods. Just keep in mind that these skills you have obtained are to open up your minds to understand the importance of ICT (information and communications technology) and what it can do to improve yourself and your surroundings.”

Robert Otuke, a small business owner, shared how the DigiTruck training transformed his bookshop business by enabling internet usage for commercial purposes. He emphasised the impact of acquiring digital skills on improving livelihoods and expanding business opportunities in rural communities.

“Initially, we never had internet in our bookshop, but when I learned about using the internet and how it can make you money, we had to buy a simple Wi-Fi device. That thing helped us to commercialise internet usage in our bookshop,” said Otuke.

Ugandan Vice President Jessica Alupo commended Huawei for empowering the country’s youth and entrepreneurs through initiatives like the DigiTruck project. She emphasised the government’s commitment to involving more stakeholders in promoting digital inclusion and fostering economic growth.

The impact of China’s contributions to Uganda’s internet growth is evident in the statistics. According to data from the Ugandan Ministry of Finance, the number of internet users surged by 45% to 18.8 million in 2017, with active telephone and mobile money subscribers witnessing significant growth. This exponential rise in internet penetration underscores the transformative influence of China’s technological expertise and investment in Uganda’s socio-economic landscape.

Looking ahead, the collaboration between Uganda and China is poised to scale new heights, with plans underway to expand internet accessibility further nationwide. Through recent funding secured from the World Bank, Uganda aims to ensure universal internet access, with a focus on reducing costs and enhancing affordability, particularly in rural communities.

Initiatives like MiOne’s launch of smartphones assembled in Uganda exemplify the tangible outcomes of this partnership, providing citizens with access to affordable and quality digital devices. As Uganda charts its path towards a digital future, China’s partnership remains indispensable, catalysing innovation, growth, and progress. With a shared commitment to harnessing the transformative power of technology, Uganda and China stand poised to write a new chapter in their collaboration, one defined by connectivity, opportunity, and prosperity for all.

The writer is a research fellow at the Sino-Uganda Research Centre

China-Uganda Cooperation: A PARADIGM SHIFT FROM HANDOUTS FOR HANDSHAKES

In the realm of global aid, a paradigm shift has emerged and gone are the days of mere handouts. This shift entails fostering self-reliance and long-term prosperity, where emphasis shifts from handouts to handshakes and from aid to partnerships, as a result outdoing the traditional notions of aid.

As Uganda navigates its development trajectory, emphasis must be increasingly placed on “hand shakes’’ rather than preserving the cycles of ‘’receiving handouts’’. And so must other African nations begin to choose Handshakes over Handouts.

An outstretched hand invites one to a dance of equals, forging partnerships in shared strides, while handouts, breed dependency and hinder self-sufficiency.

In the seductive orchard of international traditional aid, many nations dream of self-reliance while side eyeing the tempting offers from the west, because of this it is high time for a reality check.

The outdoing of the traditional aid model has been propelled by a host of unpleasant characteristics that have long plagued its efficacy, and a result leading to it being abandoned.

Its sweet taste of dependency is like candy for the economy, except it rots from within. Take for instance, the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, decades of aid have often failed to catalyze meaningful economic growth, instead of thriving economies, many countries find themselves trapped in cycles of reliance on western aid perpetuating the very poverty they seek to escape.

Traditional aid comes with more condition than a prenuptial agreement. You Need a loan? Then better be prepared to swallow bitter pills of austerity measures and policy reforms that prioritize donor interests over local needs.

Recent events, such as the threat to withhold aid from Uganda over the Anti-Homosexuality Act, serve as stark reminder of this, this reaction underscores the broader dilemma of using aid as a diplomatic tool if aid as a cycle of handouts is preserved.

Have you ever played a game of hide and seek with a billion-dollar budget? That’s the thrill of western aid accountability, you will be searching for transparency and oversight in a maze of corruption and mismanagement. Building self-reliance on embezzlement and shady deals is like building a sandcastle with a doomed horizon, like a tsunami on the horizon.

 

This aid may come wrapped in a shiny package of development, but peel back the layers, and you’ll find the same old power play dressed in new clothes.

In this dynamic paradigm shift, a transformative concept has emerged, one that transcends the traditional notion of mere handout. It is the crux of a handshake a symbol of mutual respect, win-win cooperation, collaboration, and empowerment with aim of building a community of shared future for mankind.

This is an exaltation not to lament the passing of an outdated traditional aid paradigm, but to bid farewell to a concept that has long served its purpose. We bid adieu to the era of handouts in the form of aid as it gracefully exits the stage of history.

As we bid farewell to the handout era, let us welcome a golden age marked by synergy, empowerment, and the relentless pursuit of excellence.

 

In recent years, China’s presence in Africa, including Uganda, has been increasingly visible, particularly in the realm of development assistance. China’s aid offers significant opportunities for infrastructure development and economic growth.

In the case of Uganda and China, there are series of handshakes agreements span across various sectors, composing a vibrant symphony of mutual benefit and shared prosperity.

The handshake agreement between Uganda and China in infrastructure development sets the stage for ambitious projects aimed at enhancing connectivity and fostering economic growth. Through these agreements, China extendeded its expertise and financial supports to assist Uganda in projects like the Entebbe- Kampala Expressway, the Karuma Hydroelectric power station, and the Isimba Hydroelectric power station stand as testament to China’s commitment to enhancing Uganda’s transportation network and energy capacity. These initiatives not only improve connectivity within Uganda but also stimulate economic activity by creating jobs and fostering trade opportunities and as a result cultivating economic independence.

The relationship between China and Uganda extends far beyond infrastructure, with trade serving as a vibrant cornerstone of their collaboration. At the heart of the partnership between China and Uganda also lies a handshake agreement focused on trade and investment.

Bilateral trade volumes have surged in recent years, with Uganda exports finding receptive markets in China, while Chinese imports cater to Uganda’s evolving consumption patterns and industrial needs. Moreover, Chinese investments across key sectors such as telecommunications, manufacturing, and agriculture inject vitality into Uganda’s economy, driving innovation and fostering entrepreneurship.

In recognition of Uganda’s fiscal challenges, China has extended crucial support through debt relief initiatives and financial assistance programs. Participations in platforms like Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has facilitated access to vital resources for funding development projects and alleviating its debt burden. Such assistance underscores China’s commitment to fostering sustainable growth and development in Uganda and Africa in general, laying the groundwork for long-term cooperation.

Beyond financial assistance, China has also provided invaluable technical expertise and training to Ugandan professionals across various sectors. Through collaborative programs, Ugandans have gained knowledge and skills in areas such as infrastructure development, agriculture and healthcare.

This technical cooperation not only enhances Uganda’s capacity to implement and manage projects effectively but also promotes knowledge exchange and mutual learning between the two nations.

At the heart of Chinese negotiation culture lies emphasis on relationship building and a win-win cooperation. Their negotiators prioritize relationship building before discussing business thus establishing trust and rapport where both benefits thus building a strong foundation of mutual respect and understanding.

It cannot be more emphasized, that through Uganda’s partnership with China in enhancing its infrastructure and enabling extensive trade holds the promise of a bright future. With these initiatives Uganda is poised to claim its spot in Africa’s development narrative. As this partnership continue to evolve, Uganda’s path to prosperity gain momentum, solidifying its place in the continent’s unfolding narrative of progress and opportunity. Certainly, Handshakes are better than Handout.

The writer is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

 

The Kampala “EFRIS” Strike; Why Traders Should Reconsider Chinese Stance

In a poster that was circulating online and in Kampala malls and arcades for the past couple of days, a section of Kampala City traders, under a relatively unknown umbrella body the “Federation of Uganda Traders Association” was making  a clarion call for all traders within the business district to close their shops on the 8th of April.  This was to protest what they called the unfair tax regime of the Uganda Revenue Authority  and other trade related grievances. What stood out for me at first glance on this poster was a declaration; “LET THE CHINESE GO BACK TO FACTORIES”.

I am no trade expert but I do have a number of business interests within the city and more importantly; an education in foreign relations to know how damaging such a statement can be. Kampala is the thriving metropolis it is today because of its cosmopolitan origin. Perhaps most traders may not be aware of this but Kampala was never a capital city by design, it is too down south to be central in Uganda’s geography, too hilly for proper defense (one may argue all previous coups that have happened in Kampala clearly had the defending forces at a disadvantage). The Colonial government invested heavily in making Entebbe City, and later Jinja city  the locus of Urbanization. However none of these two could ever compare to the melting pot of cultures that was Kampala. That is who we are.

A lot of traders in Kampala seem to have been misled into believing that the Chinese businessmen in Kampala are the cause of most of their woes which, when investigated closely is far from the truth. A casual walk through downtown Kampala would acquaint the keen observer to the fact that the Chinese are not anywhere close to the top 5 demographics doing business in Kampala. To put it bluntly, there’s simply too few Chinese businesspeople in Kampala for them to pose a significant threat to the business of the average a Ugandan trader. If anything most of the Chinese businesses in Kampala are wholesale shops which are designed to sell goods affordably to the Ugandan traders which they in turn sell to the Ugandan consumer for a profit. This is a system that was developed out of a need to bring affordable quality manufactured products from China closer to the average Ugandan trader who didn’t have the ability to import in bulk.

I personally purchase artificial flowers for my flower shop from a Chinese wholesale shop downtown at a fraction of what it would cost me if I was to import the flowers myself. I know quite a number of traders within my same line of work doing the  same and who’s businesses would collapse if the Chinese wholesalers in Kikuubo closed shop. This is why many of us suspect that this narrative of “let the Chinese go back to the factories” could simply be a ploy by different players in the import sector to monopolize the market. Otherwise, since the Chinese operate an open market economy and we now have Ugandan importers getting goods right from Guangzou and Beijing it is hard to fathom why they are unable to have healthy competition with their Chinese counterparts and instead seek to instigate the small scale traders who’s businesses rely on these imports against them.

Additionally, there shouldn’t be anything wrong with Chinese factories having outlets and selling points within Kampala and other major economic hubs. For any manufacturer to stay relevant on the consumer market they should have contact with at least some of their clients to keep up with the changing trends and preferences. Many Ugandan companies do this, large brands like Jesa Diaries and Lato milk have got shops in almost all economic hubs across the country. It is actually more relevant for the Chinese companies to have representatives in all trading hubs so that they can better understand the local market and produce relevant products.

Looking at the bigger picture, China is perhaps our most significant trade partner outside of East Africa..Uganda’s exports to China surpassed $50M in 2022 and it’s very easy for this figure to have doubled by the end of 2024. In contrast Uganda’s exports to the United States of America through the AGOA(Africa Growth and Opportunity Act) initiative were only worth about $8.2M in the same period. This underscores the value of China as an important trade and development partner. On top of this the People’s Republic of China has got a Zero Tariff policy on 98% of the taxable goods produced in Uganda.

From this light it is clear to see that what some people are trying to market as a “Chinese problem” in Uganda is actually a Chinese opportunity. Instead of trying to push legitimate Chinese business representatives out of the capital our leaders should instead be lobbying the Chinese embassy in Kampala to set up trade hubs where Ugandan traders can get more information on the goods required by the Chinese market, the quantities needed and how to get them there. They can also set up backwards linkages directly from Chinese suppliers for goods needed in Uganda so that they do not need to worry about “competition” from the Chinese..

It is possible that the traders have got some genuine grievances that need to be aired out. It is in the best interest of all stakeholders for them to find common ground and hopefully a consensus is reached in the upcoming meeting they have got with the Head of State. However it is on the best interest of traders to look past hoarding the local market of 47 million people to explore the opportunity of 1.4 billion in China. Let’s not throw the baby with the bath water; with  98% of the goods to China tax exempt, while there maybe other concerns Ugandan traders need to worry about Chinese traders should not be one of them. They are helping in growing our economy, this in all ways is necessary.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

Uganda needs to Leverage its Bilateral Relations with China to Maintain its Growth Trajectory

The past year was a mixture of two emotional hues for Uganda following the enactment of the anti homosexuality law. Whereas proponents of the law celebrated and rejoiced in its enactment, critics and activists alike were concerned that the law would unleash an array of rights concerns in Uganda. However, besides this binary of positions, there was a third group of Ugandans who expressed concerns about the country’s ability to deal with the resulting fallout from the passing of this bill into law. As it would turn out, these fears were justified, as the World Bank Group would later in August 2023 issue a statement announcing plans to halt any further funding to Uganda as additional measures and mechanisms for grievance redress were deemed necessary.  Moreover, in the final quarter of 2023, the Biden administration also announced the removal of Uganda from the Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) citing gross human rights violations as the reason for the decision to exclude Uganda from the trade pact. While all this was evolving, there was growing concerns about the future of the Ugandan economy and the prospects of attaining the growth targets of Vision 2040 of transforming the country from a peasant to a modern and prosperous economy as the fallout from this law cast a dark shadow over the transformational prospects of the country. This would in turn beg the question; is all hope lost for the country’s economic future?

Nature abhors a vacuum: it is a scientifically accepted position that empty spaces are simply not sustainable and the moment they come about, surrounding matter will always rush in to fill them. We can aptly interpolate this principle of science into the area of international relations and development cooperation just the same way and particularly in the Ugandan case as it seeks to address the fallout from last year’s passing of the Anti homosexuality law.  During a Media and Think tanks briefing focusing on the outcomes and future of China-Uganda practical cooperation on March the 28, the Chinese envoy to Uganda H.E Zhang Lizhong reiterated China’s commitment to work with all countries to steer multi-polarity and globalization. Key to this was emphasizing inclusive globalization, which China defines as supporting countries to pursue a development path that is suited to their own national conditions. This is a notion that fits very well with China’s diplomatic principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign territories.

It is important to note that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was among the very first countries to establish diplomatic relations with Uganda only nine days after independence. In fact, bilateral relations between both countries have continued to flourish through the years with milestones including but not limited to, large-scale infrastructure projects such as roads, hydropower stations, and cooperation in health, agriculture et cetera. Additionally, Uganda and China have worked together in a diversity of fields covering poverty reduction, education, science and technology, providing assistance and shared experiences to drive comprehensive social and economic development.

Ambassador Zhang Lizhong further reaffirmed China’s continued commitment to joining hands with Uganda in the spirit of cooperation that delivers on the principles of mutual benefit, common development and inclusive progress for both the people of China and Uganda as both countries advance towards building a community with a shared future. As a testament to this, bilateral trade between China and Uganda has been growing progressively  over the last 10 years from $600 million to $1.3 billion. Moreover, by the end of 2023, Uganda’s share of this had grown by 19.6% reaching $70M. Meanwhile, as the trade ratios might indicate a deficit for Uganda, this is a working progress and China,  guided by its strong belief in a win-win outcome is still dedicated to working with Uganda in addressing this imbalance. For example, this is being done through a number of avenues among which are, a zero tariff treatment for up to 98% of export commodities from Uganda on the Chinese market. China is also collaborating with Uganda to stimulate production through cooperation in areas such as infrastructure through the Belt and Road Initiative  (BRI), industrialization, agriculture, health among others.

In an effort to spur industrialization, China has invested in numerous multi-million dollar industrial parks including the Liaoshen industrial park, Mukono industrial park, Shandong Industrial Park, Kehong China-Uganda Industrial Park and Sino-Uganda industrial park in Mbale, Eastern Uganda. This coupled with additional support such as the donation of rice farming and processing machinery and equipment worth $2 million to Butaleja district, medical supplies worth $1 million to fight malaria, all of which have a cumulative impact on  the nation’s production capacity are not only likely to increase the country’s export volume but also its ability to meet the local demand. Thus in the presence of zero tariff treatment for Ugandan export commodities on the Chinese market, Uganda stands to gain a lot regarding its efforts to narrow down the trade deficit by leveraging this access to the Chinese market aided by the boost to the country’s industrialization effort. Moreover, coming with all this investment is an increase in the number of Ugandans employed hence improved livelihoods and purchasing power of Ugandans as well, all of which will positively impact on the nation’s GDP along the way.

Therefore, I am among those Ugandans inclined to believe that not all hope is actually lost for Uganda especially as the country deals with its removal from AGOA considering that by June 2023, Uganda’s export to the AGOA market was a paltry $8.2 million in contrast with the over $70 million trade volume with China during the same period. This together with all the other efforts aimed at buttressing Uganda’s production capacity, there is more mileage that can be gained only if Uganda is able to effectively leverage its cooperation and bilateral trade  with China by increasing investment in production as well as diversifying and improving the quality of our export products. For as long as we work dedicatedly to bridge this economic gap,  we shall not only be able to just stay afloat but to continue growing our economy as we march towards the targets of vision 2040.

George Musiime is a research fellow at the Sino-Uganda Research Centre.

 

Uganda-China Should Collaborate on Climate Financing

I wish to first pre-empt the scepticism shared by some people about the feasibility of different modes of climate finance and the efficacy of their impact on mitigating climate change. The climate finance architecture easily seems to be capitalism’s mode of commercialising climate change without solving it. I am partly doubtful of the impact of offsetting emissions through buying carbon credits. However, I believe that to abstain from partaking in this business would only guarantee us a double loss. We lose nothing by being involved, yet we miss out on so many opportunities to raise capital to finance our other development needs if we boycott these international climate change mitigation efforts.

Uganda currently lacks a clear climate financing strategy despite the urgent need to meet its growing cost of addressing climate challenges. We stand to suffer serious economic consequences if we do not act. The recent decades have seen an increase and the frequency of arbitrary climate events in the country which have affected agriculture- the breadwinner industry for the majority of our population.

We are particularly at extreme risk of economically suffering from climate change due to the heavy dependence on farming, a very sensitive sector to our livelihood yet it’s highly vulnerable to climate change. With Agriculture affected, 40% of our GDP could be significantly reduced and 80% of our labour force could be rendered unemployed. A random destabilisation of rain seasons could put our economy on its knees since less than 2 % of farming in this country depends on irrigation.

I do not want to imagine a scenario of a hungry and jobless population and its likely effect on our security and political stability. Many Ugandans might be governable for now because of the high and reliable supply of food and water across the country. We are a country of subsistence farmers. Ugandans may not highly be impacted by the cost of clothes, sugar, spices, cooking oil or gas. These are considered luxury goods in our villages. But a serious decline in food production could detonate a time bomb of incipient political disgruntlement in our people. Therefore, just like Uganda partners with powerful countries on security, it is time we partnered with China on addressing climate change as though it were a security matter; because it is.

China has dedicated a serious stake in our infrastructure development, with a vision to contribute to our industrialization and consequently our development. This is a strategic investment, with a broad shared vision for both Uganda and China. However, the two states cannot blind themselves from factors that could potentially sabotage their grand strategy for development. We need to keep working together to tie any loose ends where our investment in development could be upset.

We would need this partnership because we lack the financial and human resources to adequately invest in the Carbon Credit Market. Just like with the oil industry where we partnered with international firms to negotiate and design our oil and gas agreements, we reasonably need some help here. The global Carbon Credit Market was valued at $103.8 billion in 2023 with a predicted growth at a CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) of 14.8% from 2024 to 2032. Last year, the value of this market hit a record of $949 billion. This is a market we cannot be indifferent about!

China would find financing us worthwhile because we have one of the most attractive carbon market profiles on the continent. Our carbon market portfolio boasts a total of over 33 million carbon credits issued from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) standards. A carbon credit is worth about $40 to $80, on average. However, if Uganda sits on its potential in this market, it could fluctuate greatly since just like any other market, it depends on demand and supply.

It is therefore urgent that we collaborate with a major global climate finance funder. China already contributes about $1.2 billion annually to climate finance through multilateral development banks and also contributes $1.4 billion bilaterally. This would be a strong partner to work with on this. The added advantage of working with China, as President Museveni normally quips, is that “…they don’t waste our time.” So, we would efficiently work through the modalities of a partnership in time to find the market still fertile.

The good news is that China has already initiated steps meant to address climate change in Uganda and Africa in general. For example, among other reasons, China’s support for bamboo growing is that it will help in addressing climate change.

Also, the Eighth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held in Dakar, Senegal (29-30th November 2021) adopted a consensus in which 53 African countries and the African Union Commission (AUC) and China agreed on “China-Africa Cooperation on Climate Change.” The two sides further committed to “support efforts to vigorously develop the green economy, advocate a green, low-carbon, circular and sustainable way of  development, and work actively to build an environment-friendly society.” With the already functioning China-Africa Environmental Cooperation Center which was established to advance  policy dialogue, exchanges and cooperation on environmental protection, Uganda and indeed other African countries should leverage it to advance climate mitigation policies including collaboration on climate financing.

We need to act early to meet the twin challenges and opportunities presented by climate change. On the one hand, we need to mitigate it because it threatens us economically and politically. Secondly, we need to participate in the booming climate change industry as espoused in the Carbon Credit Market. we need a reliable partner to face both challenges. Uganda’s vision for 2040 on achieving upper middle-income status and reducing poverty to 5% could dissipate into the wind if we only focus on infrastructure and energy and forget about potential subversive factors like climate change. Harnessing climate finance should thus be primary to our development agenda.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

China-Africa cooperation is more than just a silver lining, it is the blue

In an interview with CGTN last year, Mr. Wu Peng, director general of the department of African affairs in the Chinese foreign affairs ministry summed up the Chinese government’s view of its interactions with Africa in a single memorable statement in which he noted that “Africa is a big stage for international cooperation, not an arena for major power rivalry.” Such is the spirit that directs Chinese foreign policy towards Africa that is based on the five principles of mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit and peaceful co-existence. It is this overriding principle that has not only made China such a significant development partner for Africa over the past few decades, but also why it will continue to play a key role on the continent.

Towards the end of the first half of the last century, Africa witnessed a wave of awakening that swept across the continent in the form of decolonization struggles, yet soon after the attainment of independence, these flames seemed to have fizzled out. Nevertheless, the cooperation between China and Africa still stayed albeit being with a measured scale of involvement. The turning point however came at the turn of the new millennium when, the then President of the Peoples Republic of China Jiang Zemin, announced China’s “going out strategy” in March 2000 followed by the first Forum on China-African Cooperation (FoCAC) Summit. Following these two events, China’s involvement in Africa began to increase and has continuously been on the raise ever since.

The African continent being home to  majority of the world’s developing countries was suffering from a multitude of challenges and bottlenecks that impeded economic progress across the continent  ranging from disease burden, peace and security, infrastructure deficits and food security among many others.  At the same time, the continent was striving to disentangle itself from this array of development bottlenecks. Meanwhile, the developed world mainly viewed Africa as a problem-riddled continent that only required interventions which would come in the form  of development aid. At the same time, China showed up with a very different perception of the continent. Following the announcement of the going out strategy in 2000, china saw Africa as an opportunity other than a problem needing solving. This was followed by more Chinese companies getting involved in Africa. As a result, the continent saw increasing Chinese investment in infrastructure including highways, railways, power generation plants, industry and manufacturing, agriculture and production etcetera. These investments revitalized the continent’s development efforts, setting Africa on a path to modernization-something that had eluded most of the continent since independence.

Confining myself to the Ugandan context, the fruits of Chinese cooperation with Uganda are far reaching spreading across such areas as infrastructure development, peace and security, food security, trade and general improvement of livelihoods of ordinary Ugandans. In fact, government of Uganda has been able to complete several infrastructure projects under the flagship of the Belt and Road Initiative BRI cooperation including the 183MW Isimba dam and 600MW Karuma power plants adding almost 800MW of clean power sources to the nation’s power generation capacity. Furthermore, there has been several completed road projects in partnership with China including but not limited to the Entebbe Express High way, which has significantly eased travel to and from the Entebbe International Airport, also completed are the Hoima-Kyenjojo, Kakumiro Kyenjojo roads. These roads made transportation of both personnel and equipment to the oil rich Albertine region much easier hence facilitating all manner of ongoing development work being carried out in the region. These and similar projects are responsible for pushing the length of paved roads in Uganda up by 1334Km from 4257.00m in 2016/17 financial year to 5591Km in the 2020/21 financial year. However, one other significant development has happened in the agricultural sector under the South-South Cooperation working with the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The south-south cooperation, aimed at improving agricultural production capacity through the tri-factor of knowledge, skills and technology transfer and building the capacity of local farmers in Uganda. This project went from demonstration farms in 2012 to the establishment of hubs with the primary focus of increasing agricultural production and value addition. The south-south cooperation has been instrumental in increasing production, ensuring food security, creating more jobs along the agricultural value chain and improving the livelihoods of individual farmers in Uganda.

Therefore, China’s cooperation with Africa has been immensely beneficial to the continent in as far as addressing the different development challenges previously faced by the continent. In fact China has been directly involved in projects aimed at not only addressing the national development goals of the host countries but also helping African Countries  in their quest to attain their targets with regards to the UN’s agenda 2030 whether it be poverty eradication or zero hunger, affordable clean energy or climate action, industry, innovation and infrastructure or sustainable cities etcetera. It does not matter whether one is looking at BRI related road or power projects in Uganda, Wind and solar farms in Ethiopia or South Africa, Railway projects in Kenya or Ethiopia, Housing projects in Tanzania or Angola, it is growing increasingly hard to miss the Chinese hallmark on the current trend of economic growth across the continent.

George Musiime is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

georgemusiime@dwcug.org

 

Understanding Chinese Contribution to BUBU

It is easy to assume that the imbalance of trade between Uganda and China translates into an unfair play in the long-term development relationship shared by the two friendly states. It’s an understandable misunderstanding. This is despite the marked improvement in the balance of trade between us over the years. By balance of trade, I mean the difference between the monetary value of Uganda’s exports versus imports to China.

However, let us not mistake the “imbalance” in our balance of trade with China to be inherently a bad thing. Whereas Uganda suffers pressure on our external payments to China due to this trade imbalance, we can neither wish away nor miss the benefit of ensuring the availability of Chinese goods such as Construction vehicles which topped our imports from China last year. These are primary tools in driving our industrialisation.

The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), analysed the dynamics of economic activities between Uganda and China in the last 28 years and established that the exports of Uganda to China have increased at an annualised rate of 25.6%, from $115k in 1995 to $54M in 2022. Additionally, in December 2023, China exported $116M and imported $5.75M from Uganda, making a positive trade balance of $110M. This gradual increase in our exports to China over time is the first promise of a better trade relationship between us, but there is more.

The idea behind the Buy Uganda Build Uganda (BUBU) policy is a brilliant one. Responding to the Private Sector’s appeal to make policy decisions that promote and encourage practices of consuming locally-produced products, the Government of Uganda unveiled the BUBU policy in 2014. It aimed to spur economic growth by giving prominence to domestically manufactured goods.

The number and weight of reasons for encouraging domestic consumption as a means to bolster economic growth are endless. China is an instructive example of this. In 2023, the government of China issued measures to boost domestic consumption which included subsidizing Chinese consumers to buy electric cars, expanding access to social housing and putting more spending cash into Chinese pockets. This is an essential step in stimulating economic growth.

Whereas countries develop through participating in international trade, they need to first anchor themselves in high domestic consumption of their own manufactured goods. How could you sell to foreigners what you can’t consume yourself anyway? We must first excel at BUBU before succeeding in international trade. In fact, although the term now sounds like a local cliché, I think it is our gateway to going international.

International trade is important primarily because it opens for us access to larger markets beyond our narrow borders. This provides opportunities for Ugandan businesses and industries to expand their customer base hence leading to economic growth and development. This is the only way we can guarantee increased productivity and competitiveness for our local industries.

BUBU should be a nursery bed for growing more industries like Mukwano Industries Limited, which has a deep penetration of its products in almost every Ugandan household. This domestic success explains why it’s one of the few Ugandan companies that have penetrated the regional and international market, exporting products to over 20 countries in East and Central Africa.

However, there remains a fear and suspicion amongst some Ugandans that foreign capital might be simply camouflaging to partake of Uganda’s efforts at promoting domestic products while excluding the intended local beneficiaries.

One of the firms criticized for this is Goodwill (Uganda) Ceramic Co. Ltd, whose shareholders are majorly Chinese. The profound question to ask, however, is what is the definition of a “local” or “domestic” or “Ugandan” company which BUBU intends to promote?

Legally understood, a “Ugandan company” is one originally incorporated in Uganda notwithstanding having majority of shareholders being foreigners. This makes Goodwill a Ugandan firm. It is even better to understand the “domesticness” of a company based on the location of its most valuable operations.

What primarily determines the origin of a business, economically speaking, is the domicile where the most central part of the highest value in the production chain of its goods falls. That is why the iPhone remains understood as an American product yet it is manufactured in China. The highest value of the iPhone is its design and marketing, which happens in California, making its highest value return to the United States.

For a country lacking fundamentally in financing, we cannot do away with foreign capital. However, our hook is in domesticating that capital. By incorporating companies locally, transferring their production systems to Uganda, employing/training Ugandans to work in all levels of manufacturing, and selling the products from Uganda as exports, we do not lose much even if the owners of the business are non-Ugandan nationals. Local ownership should not be narrowly understood as exclusive ownership by Ugandan nationals. That will limit our access to development capital.

The Chinese are investing so much money in Uganda, co-owning firms with Ugandans, employing Ugandan labourers, training them, transferring technology to Uganda and doing a lot to support Uganda in ultimately supporting herself. They are not importing Chinese experts and labourers to establish colonies here to feed China. This is a relationship that supports BUBU.  It’s a relationship we can exploit to grow our economy.

The writer is a Senior Research Fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

 

 

 

 

Should We Celebrate ICC’s Award to LRA Victims?

Towards the close of February 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a record reparations order, compensating about 50,000 victims of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) up to $56 million (Shs.222 billion). Most of those compensated were particularly victims of LRA’s former rebel commander Dominic Ongwen who was convicted in 2021 on 60 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Whereas this reparations award is a bold statement especially to the victims of this LRA insurgency in denouncing their plight, it remains problematic in many ways.

Firstly, the Trust Fund for victims where this sum- the largest the ICC has ever awarded in a case- is expected to come from, relies on voluntary contributions and could actually fail to raise enough money to meet the compensation order. This in itself is problematic as I will explain later. But one should wonder how Ongwen, who is the person against whom the compensation order falls, or criminals like him, could be deterred yet they know that the ICC will upon their conviction find them indigent and consequently shoulder their burden of compensation.

Secondly and most importantly, I think that this award is precisely a tool and technique for legitimizing the ICC. By celebrating this award, Uganda would be ordaining the legitimacy of the ICC hence sanctioning it to undertake other decisions which might be ulterior and deleterious to our national interests in the end.

What is wrong with legitimising ICC? Or why should we consciously and proactively discredit the ICC?

This international tribunal was established in 2002 under the Rome Statute. It promised to foster justice and human rights on the international landscape. Uganda was one of the naïve states which ratified the Rome Statute as early as June 2002.

It was naïve because how could we have bought the lie that an international organisation could dispense criminal justice in the absence of a political jurisdiction? The vague description of the magic with which the ICC claims to effectively administer justice on an international scale without the backing of a state establishment only raises suspicion about the invisible state powers to which it provides cover like a magician’s sleight. It is realistically impossible to dispense criminal justice and order without the backing of a political order. In the case of ICC, that order becomes the narrowly interested cartel of great powers at the Security Council.

It now goes with saying that the ICC is a political body bidding for the interests of great powers. Under Article 15 of the Rome Statute, the Security Council is empowered to set the agenda for ICC in several material ways.

The impunity of veto-holders practically emasculates the court. For example, it cannot investigate the criminal culpability of individuals without the consent of the Security Council. Into the bargain, the Security Council has powers to deter any ICC investigation as long as it wishes to.

Therefore, whereas jurists of international law and unsuspecting members of the international community such as the victims of the LRA war in Northern Uganda may celebrate these historical reparations awards as a mark of the success of the ICC in implementing international law, we shouldn’t be blinded from the sinister grand framing of this body.

The essence of this award is to restore the tainted image of the ICC. It is staged to make ICC seem effective in delivering justice internationally. But on the other hand, the legitimization of the ICC by virtue of our celebration of such awards plays right into the hands of some great powers which are wielding neo-colonial power through the ICC. Under the guise of international law, these powers subtly shape and reshape the political order especially in developing countries by claiming to enact law behind ICC. Even worse, they shamelessly exclude themselves from the jurisdiction of this “international law”.

It is not that we do not wish for peace, stability and order in Africa and other developing countries. We do. But the effect of interventions by international well-wishers like the ICC and its attendant wheeler-dealers only play gimmicks with us politically without solving the real problems of Africa. By projecting the ICC as the go-to body to resolve political crimes in Africa, we are disarmed from cultivating the indigenous incentives for holding political criminals accountable to the people they wrong. Right now, Dominic Ongwen is beyond the reach of his victims; in a cosy prison cell in Norway. It is the global powers now waving the flag of success in dealing with the crimes he committed in Uganda and neighbouring countries. Back home, his victims watch him on television like a Hollywood movie star. The state of Uganda is merely a bystander watching its criminal serving a 25-year jail sentence about 6,919 km away from his crime scene.

This form of justice will never solve political problems in Africa. In fact, it is not intended to solve them. Instead, it is meant to postpone our agency in solving these problems ourselves, and as such, perpetually create a lacuna for “powerful states” to intervene in our “troubled countries” as messianic international liberators.

Unless we as African states manage these crises ourselves and pay the price for earning the means to contain political violence and dispensing political justice for political criminals by ourselves, we shall permanently be victimized by global powers through such bodies as the ICC under the guise of alleviating anarchy in Africa.

The writer is a Senior Research Fellow at the Development Watch Centre.