Tag: China

Spain’s PM China Trip: A Cobweb of Politics and Geopolitical Re-alignment

Posted on By Joshua Kingdom

On Sunday April 12th, Spain’s Prime Minister (PM) Pedro Sánchez landed in China for a five days state visit making him the sixth European statesman to do so between December 2025 and April 2026. The leaders coming before him were; Emmanuel Macron of France, Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom (UK), Friedrich Merz of Germany, Petteri Orpo of Finland, and Taoiseach Micheal Martin of the Republic of Ireland. In January, Mark Carney also headed a high level Canadian delegation to China.

In part then, PM Sánchez’s mission can be understood as falling in the emerging trend of European Union (EU) member states opting to collaborate more with Beijing in a bid to hedge themselves against the increased unpredictability in Washington following the re-entry of President Trump on the international political scene. Stopping at that however, would be to miss the most important aspect of Sino-Madrid relations in recent years.

In order to have a better grasp of the dynamics at play, one has to go back to 2023 starting from which, the Spanish Socialist Workers Party’s Secretary General has put it upon himself to embark on an annual diplomatic sojourn to China. This places him in a category of his own. What is even more fascinating is that King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia travelled to the Asian nation too towards the end of last year.

Looking at things from this perspective, the capacities that PM Sánchez’s relationship with Secretary Xi Jinping has brought about overtime become a point of inspiration for other heads of states (both within Europe and outside of it) who are only awakening to the current moment in geopolitics now about the opportunities that become available to harness once a country establishes strong ties with  China. A concrete example in this regard is trade between China and Spain which increased by almost 10% in 2025 alone (the final figure stood at $55 billion). Specifically for Madrid, her exports under this bilateral framework grew by 7%.

By working more closely, the two parties have been able to set in place conditions that facilitated the realization of each other’s comparative advantage. In 2024 hence, Prime Minister Sánchez alongside Prime Minister Li Qiang entered agreements on green development, science research, education, culture etc. Two years down the road, Chinese manufacturer Chery announced that it would be setting up a plant targeting to serve the European continent at large in Barcelona.

The Chinese and Spanish political establishments have also been able to provide an alternative model to interstate relations which though cognizant of the fact that national interests can never be aligned across the board, is at the same time sophisticated enough to bypass the same to emphasize areas of common ground. The reigning President of Socialist International addressed this phenomenon in a speech delivered at Tsinghua University during the 2026 official visit saying that; “A multipolar world is not an assumption or an ideal, but a new reality. We cannot change it; we can only deny it or embrace it.”

Unfortunately, when Spain has exemplified this spirit more broadly, her efforts have been treated with contempt. Having denied the United States of America access to the Morón and Rotafor military bases for instance (cautioning instead that “you cannot answer one illegality with another, because that is how the great catastrophes of humanity begin”), the country’s 47th President responded with threats of imposing a full trade embargo on the EU state. The good news is that Donald Trump has not treated less vocal parties kindly either a move that has tested their patience significantly such that as it stands, UK and Paris have both made public the fact that they will not partake in the Strait of Hormuz blockade that America recently announced.

From here, it is not difficult to see them seek to consolidate their cooperation with Beijing given what Spain has managed to achieve by doing so. When he met with President Xi thus, Pedro Sánchez made no secret of the fact that he thought that it was necessary that the China takes a more proactive role in geopolitics and that if the party, it would have the full support of his government.

The writer is a Lawyer and Research Fellow at the Development Watch Centre

 

China’s Playbook for Global Industrial Dominance

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

China's Qinghai Province hosts the world's largest solar power plant, Gonghe Talatan Solar Park. Experts claim that at full capacity, it can power a country such as Norway. Sprawling across China’s deserts is not just sand but also vast solar and wind projects. Both the world’s largest solar plants and wind farms are all located in China. China invests an average of $940 billion in clean energy technology per year. In comparison, China invests almost as much in renewable energy…

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Merz’s High-Stakes China Balancing Act

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

In February this year, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in China. This was his first visit there since taking office, and he’s the latest Western leader seeking to reset ties with Beijing. The trip came amid warnings from German industry of growing competition from China. It is clear that both countries now want to pursue increasingly practical cooperation.

Any curious observer of China knows that the country is currently celebrating the year of the horse. It is therefore symbolically significant for Germany that the first high-profile visitor to Beijing during this highly auspicious lunar year has been their Chancellor.

One of the difficult asks Merz had for President Xi Jinping was that China should encourage Russia, its key ally, to end the war in Ukraine. But that will be a topic for another piece. For this trip, the primary focus for Germany was on seeking closer cooperation with Beijing as a hedge against rising global trade protectionism and tariffs.

Ahead of his journey to the Land of the Dragon, Merz remarked thus: “Foreign policy and economic policy belong together just as much as defence policy and domestic policy. We can no longer separate them today. That’s why I’ll be travelling to China to discuss future cooperation between Europe and Germany on the one side and China on the other…”

Remember, Merz is the latest leader to trip his way to China, seeking to stabilise economic ties and navigate geopolitical shifts. Countries which in the past had blocked China during its trade dispute are now impatiently knocking at the Middle Kingdom’s door, all keen to strike business deals. The British, Canadian, and South Korean leaders have all visited Beijing this year, yet we have not even moved half of the year!

Firstly, it is obvious, even common sensical that Merz should tread carefully not to cause a rift with Washington over China. President Trump recently threatened 100% tariffs on Canada for holding trade talks with Beijing. Germany will be aiming to strengthen ties without triggering a similar retaliation from the US.

Secondly, there is apparent domestic pressure for Merz, too. Over the past year, German politicians and business groups have increasingly warned about intensifying industrial competition with China and the risk of a new China shock. Even European/Western experts have spoken out and recognise that China has become a sophisticated manufacturer and is advancing rapidly in key technologies, a growing challenge for Germany’s export-driven economy. Last year, China sold a trillion dollars more overseas than it imported. Germany’s economy is highly export-driven, but exports to China fell more than 9% in 2025. Overall, car exports to China have dropped by a staggering 2/3 since 2022.

The other concern on Merz’s hands is that he needs to balance the need to protect vulnerable German industries from cheap Chinese goods while repairing strained ties. This would be a defining challenge for him. German automakers are already feeling the pinch from Chinese competition, since China is now the global leader in EVs, and a distant number one for that matter. This is something that Merz has to navigate along with the whole question of where rare earths will come from in the future, as China becomes more and more restrictive and is very open that it wants to use this as a political instrument as well. The other key challenge on Merz’s table is the pressure from the United States. America, of course, wants to see its European partners take a tough line on the Chinese government and particularly on their trade deficit.

Therefore, whereas Merz may want to have a stable, prosperous relationship with China, the foregoing issues I have highlighted are real concerns for him to deal with. The reality of the time is that Germany is exporting less to China. German brands in China have less of a market share, and Chinese brands are increasingly competing with Germany in third countries around the world. Merz travelled with several European manufacturers on this trip, and they all had/have serious concerns that this is costing jobs in Germany. The business people are definitely critical of what they may find to be unfair practices by China, such as things like government subsidies, although basic knowledge of economic history would reveal that this is the same process by which Western industries accumulated significant growth and came to dominate the global market.

For President Xi Jinping, it must be a very great experience hosting yet another powerful Western leader. Xi has effortlessly been positioned by Western leaders themselves as a stable partner compared to the US, whose leader, Donald Trump, seems to be as fragile to rely on as the weather.

These events have also added to the image of China as the true leader of the new multipolar world order. And since Germany and Europe in general are important markets for China, Xi must be glad to welcome more European leaders to China to strike trade deals. This is even more urgent now, when the Chinese economy’s domestic demand has been slowing down. China, therefore, needs to rely increasingly on the export market.

We should remember that the relationship between Germany and China has really flipped over the years. It had been the case that Germany was a big exporter to China, with China having to rely significantly on German machinery and German expertise. However, in recent years, China has become the one exporting a lot to Germany. There is a lot of dependency on Chinese manufacturing for the German economy to survive. Nevertheless, China still relies heavily on German imports for materials and other chemicals and manufacturing, although Germany is the most dependent of the two countries.

The writer is a senior research fellow – Development Watch Center.

 

China’s Bid for Global Leadership

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

The level of Chinese modernization is going to be the defining marvel of our time, if isn’t already. China has made great strides in economic strength, and in advancing scientific and technological capabilities.

The country has demonstrated an ability to sustain and consolidate progress in several measures. It has increased gross domestic product (GDP) to 134.9 trillion yuan, which averages a year-on-year increase of 5 percent. China continues to contribute about 30 percent to global economic growth. China consistently creates a total of 12 million urban jobs annually, and surveys of urban unemployment rates estimates it at just about 5.1 percent.

Almost every year that comes, China’s foreign trade strikes a record high, and the global market share of China’s exports continues to increase. Last year, China’s foreign exchange reserves surpassed 3.2 trillion US dollars.

The country has registered steady progress in the wellbeing of its people. As you read this, the per capita disposable income of China has grown by 5.1 percent in real terms. Whatever achievements the state registers in poverty alleviation are further consolidated and expanded. There is now greater support rendered to compulsory education, basic old-age insurance, basic medical insurance, and social assistance in China.

In the field of industrial output and new advancements, China has continued to dominate. It has registered grain output at a new record high of 700 million metric tons, with the yield per hectare rising by 75.75 kilograms. The value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has appreciated by 8.9 percent and 7.7 percent respectively, and the output of new-energy vehicles passed the 13 million mark. China has recorded an increase in the value added in the sectors of information transmission, software, and IT services by 10.9 percent and by 10.4 percent in leasing and business services.

The enhancements made in innovation capacity in China are peerless. The country has recorded new achievements in integrated circuits, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technology, and other areas. One of the recent highlights of Chinese technological superiority was when the Chang’e-6 mission completed humanity’s first-ever sample collection from the far side of the moon, and the delivery and commission of the Mengxiang ocean drilling vessel. The total value of China’s technology contract transactions increased by 11.2 percent.

China is also making new breakthroughs in reform and opening up. It has completed the reform of government institutions across the board, adopted major reform measures for building a unified national market, and gradually raised the statutory retirement age.

China has lifted all market access restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector, while also further expanding and upgrading investment cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative.

At the beginning of March 2026, China published its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in which it invited the world to share prosperity. The plan shows China to be a stable anchor for the world economy and a reliable partner in addressing common challenges. As the beacon of modernization, and with a population of 1.4 billion people, China’s posture now is of a reliable and stable partner to both advanced and developing countries alike, marking it out as the bearer of the torch to an alternative path in a growingly turbulent world.

China is likely going to create a new demand for international talent, technology, and partnerships through its massive investments in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, smart economy, and advanced manufacturing. China is no longer merely the leading producer of EVs, but now promises to be the world leader in green transport in general.

The country’s Transport Ministry has unveiled plans to promote the digital and green transition of its transport sector during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It will facilitate the development of zero-carbon transport corridors and stations as part of efforts to boost low-carbon development of the transport sector.

Domestically, China is also keen on addressing unbalanced and inadequate development, to expand the middle-income group and broaden access to basic public services across its population. Common prosperity in China is not what the West portrays it to be in negative frames of egalitarianism or a redistribution-first model that suppresses market incentives. China’s common prosperity follows a dual-track strategy — expanding the economic “pie” while improving its distribution, so that growth gains are shared more broadly.

The writer is a senior research fellow | Development Watch Center.

China’s Two Sessions: the Centrality of China-Africa Green Cooperation and Why It Matters

Posted on By Musiime George

Each spring, the ‘two sessions;’ China’s biggest political assembly brings together the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) to deliberate on the nation’s broad policy direction for the new year. This year’s two sessions ran from March 04-12, bringing together members of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and representatives from all political parties, industry leaders, academia and prominent figures in Chinese society.

Noteworthy is that, this year’s two sessions came in under five months of the 2025 plenary session and a new 5th five-year plan—that specially stands out for its extraordinary emphasis on high quality development. While it’s anchored on a spectrum of guiding principles, the 15th five-year plan lays special emphasis on the need to accelerate the green transition in all areas of economic and social development. This transition is viewed as a critical element in China’s modernization, building a beautiful China, but also as an inroad to a community with a shared future for humanity.

Incidentally, the 2026 two sessions also fall in the 70th-year of China-Africa friendship. To mark this milestone, both sides are now more than ever focused on the shared aspiration of building an all-weather China-Africa community with a shared future in the new era. This, against a backdrop of unprecedented risks – on the list of which is climate change.

It’s an undeniable fact that climate change threatens livelihoods and sometimes entire national economies across Africa, the global south and indeed the wider world. Depending on where one is, these risks can range from food and water insecurity, disruptions to production and ecological systems, health hazards associated with erratic weather patterns, among others all of which undoubtedly have a bearing on the quality of development.

In the face of such uncertainty, Africa often looks to its friendship with China, China’s experience, technical expertise, high-quality manufacturing capability and record of rapid modernization for inspiration. Moreover, there is great hope that deliberations at the two sessions could reinforce the imperative for further strengthening and directing this partnership towards bolstering Africa’s climate readiness and resilience.

For Africa, climate change is one of the greatest challenges to development yet, the continent’s limited development is a double-edged sword which; besides exposing the continent to severe adversity, also makes it ill-prepared to deal with risks posed by climate change.

Despite being responsible for less than 4 percent of the world’s climate problem, the African Development Bank estimates that Africa loses 3-5 percent of its annual GDP to climate related events. This situation is further made worse by an annual climate financing gap of $227 million. These circumstances create the imperative for a blend of strong partnerships, innovation and practical financing solutions to guarantee climate resilience while fueling the desired growth.

Historically, energy shortages have been one of Africa’s greatest growth-bottlenecks yet, relying entirely on traditional energy sources to close this gap wouldn’t be without substantial environmental consequences. Therefore, in a world where geopolitical and geo-economic competition are placed ahead of a looming climate catastrophe, China-Africa green cooperation is a model for effective climate response. China’s green cooperation framework is a positive development not just for both sides but the world for a number of reasons. First, in addition to the two sides being home to approximately 36-percent of global population, Africa holds about 60 percent of the world’s solar resources which are grossly untapped. Meanwhile, what China lacks in green resources it makes up for in expertise in green development, innovations, clean energy, and competitive manufacturing. This matrix makes the China-Africa green cooperation a partnership of high-potency in the world’s green transition, promising steady progression towards a sustainable energy mix, at least for two of the world’s most populous regions.

To this, China adds ambition, pragmatism and more importantly, structuring cooperation around Africa’s articulated needs, but also global goals in greening the planet. For instance, China’s green cooperation with Africa is highly practical; going beyond policy statements and creating impact on the ground. As a result, cooperation projects can be found all across Africa; from the Noor solar complex in Morocco to the De Aar wind farm in South Africa; together powering upwards of one million households and keeping tons of CO2 out of the atmosphere annually. In East Africa, projects like the Karuma Dam in Uganda, Gibe III dam in Ethiopia and the Garissa solar power plant in Kenya equally have similar benefits.

Away from infrastructure projects, significant progress is visible in areas of capacity building, knowledge and experience sharing aimed at greening the continent. In this regard, there’s no better example than the China-Africa environmental cooperation center (CAECC) established in 2020 under the [Great Green Wall] initiative.  This initiative besides being a hub for sharing knowledge and experience is an avenue for conducting joint research on combating desertification on the continent. The great green wall has played a key in reinforcing the “frontline defense” in Nigeria’s Kano state – a local effort in containing the expansion of the Sahara Desert southwards not to mention its role in carbon sequestration. The great green wall initiative has been influential in reclaiming tens of millions of hectares of land in a region that was previously losing more than 30 hectares to desertification annually.

But the China-Africa green cooperation isn’t a new or an anticipated outcome of the 2026 two sessions because it has been ongoing and growing through time. Even before the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) backed CAECC, the Forum on China-Africa cooperation FoCAC framework had produced the Sharm El Sheik, Beijing, and Addis-Ababa Action Plans, setting the tone for ecological cooperation and sustainable development before 2016. The CAECC has incrementally been given agency through FoCAC where both sides have adopted several Action Plans namely; the Johannesburg Action Plan in 2016-2018, Beijing Action Plan 2019-2021, and Dakar Action Plan 2022-2024. Indeed, besides the series of action plans, the 8 major initiatives and 9 programs during the 2018 FoCAC summit in Beijing also stressed Green transition as a significant pillar of China’s relationship with the continent.

China continues to demonstrate its commitment to working with Africa to tackle its challenges by sharing experiences for accelerated growth through infrastructure and capacity building, human capital training and supporting Africa’s industrialization. Its policy on cooperation with Africa addresses both sustainability and the continent’s articulated aspirations, such as market access and industrialization, as evidenced by President Xi Jinping’s three measures announced at the 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa. Uganda for instance, is working on cooperation arrangements with Cherry automobiles, CHTC, and Zhongtong in the area of electric vehicles (EVs) while Egypt’s Suez Economic Zone with its five solar production establishments is emerging as a solar manufacturing hub on the continent.

As China-Africa green cooperation expands in the era of high quality development, we can expect climate conscious industrialization and green manufacturing to grow simultaneously with economic zones and industrial parks. This will most certainly bring with it — more green industrialization, green jobs for the continent’s youthful population, while ensuring a sustainable path to growth and modernization across the continent.

The writer is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre

On China’s Rare Earth Monopoly

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

An electric car, on average, has over 10,000 parts. If we take the example of the Tesla Model Y, its key parts are in the rear drive unit, weighing about 194 pounds, constituting less than 5% of its total weight. The rear drive unit carries magnetic motors, which are the fulcrum around which the mobility of the vehicle revolves. Required for the manufacture of these magnets are rare earth minerals/metals. Experts posit that without these key ingredients, Teslas/EVs would be less powerful, less efficient, more expensive, and more complex.

China produces about 70% of all rare earth metals in the global circulation. America produces just about 12%. Ironically, rare earth minerals are not called rare because of scarcity. They can be found in large deposits in many parts of the world. The rarest aspect about them is the ability to extract and refine them. That is where China comes in, unparalleled.

To produce magnets out of rare earth materials, you have to significantly refine them. To refine them, you need to have great amounts of energy and advanced mechanisms of managing hazardous waste, since the process involves heavy pollution. China has the ability for both, making it the global leader in rare earth refining.

Simply put, without China, there would be no Electric Vehicles. The EV revolution is revolving around China’s industrial scale in refining rare earths. Besides EVs, many other technologically advanced industries consume rare earths.

In the military, advanced aircraft, precision-guided munitions, naval systems and submarines, Tanks, soldier gear, e.g. night vision goggles, and many other equipment need rare earths to be made.

AI data centers also rely on rare earths in data storage hardware, fiber optic communications, power infrastructure and component miniaturisation.

China accounts for 92% of the global supply of all the refined rare earth materials necessary for these industries, which are key to global domination. If China cut its supply, America’s appetite for imperialism would be fundamentally destabilised.

Indeed, China has, over time, taken some steps to control the market. In October 2025, China announced new rules that require foreign companies to gain approval to export products where rare earths account for just 0.1% of the goods’ total value. Washington panicked. Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

But how did China come to have almost a complete monopoly on rare earths? For decades, China quietly learned that rare earths were the backbone of America’s most important industries, including petroleum refining, precision hardware, metallurgy, and especially, military hardware.

Armed with that knowledge, the PRC established a national Rare Earth Development and Application Leading Group in 1975, which multiplied research and development funding in the field. As a part of this, Chinese scientists studied nowhere but, in the US, where the largest rare earth mine was located at the time. They studied ore composition, mine design, and processing techniques, and even reportedly took rock samples home. A complacent global giant, America made no fuss about it.

It is difficult to explain why rare earths have always been a small segment of mining until China took it on at a grand scale. It’s not like America did know how important they were, but probably they could not commit to paying the price for refining them, as we saw at the beginning of this article. China, patient and strategic as history, were quietly ramping up skill and scale to outproduce any other country, knowing how important rare earths would be to industries of the future.

It is reported that in 1995, the American government approved the sale of Magnequench, the rare earths and magnet division of General Motors, to Chinese companies. Initially, the companies maintained some US factories, but later rapidly built up factories in China and eventually shuttered all U.S. facilities, effectively shifting the capacity, know-how, and innovation to China.

As early as 1991, China passed a law calling rare earths strategic and restricting foreign companies from working with Chinese companies. Additionally, it introduced tax rebates to encourage domestic production. The effects of these early policies were already apparent in the early 2010s, whereby OPEC controlled around 40% of global oil production, and China controlled 90% of refined, rare-earth production, making it the peerless world leader in the sector.

It is obvious that the global demand for rare earths will continue to increase over the next few decades. Experts clarify that the value of rare earths is not in them as a commodity, but in what they enable. Without them, we cannot have EVs, robotics, AI, defence systems and many more technologically advanced products. If nothing happens, China is likely to remain in a distant lead ahead of the West. With America and its European cousins now focused on bombing the Stone Age into Iran, I don’t see how they will focus on constructive things like rare-earth refining to compete against their true opponent, China.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Center.

 

The Strait of Hormuz and the Petro-Yuan

Posted on By Admin

Editor’s note: The writer, Izza Fatima, is a junior researcher at the Development Watch Centre. The article reflects the author’s opinions and not necessarily the views of DWC.

The world waits for Iran to flip the page and reopen access to the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran and China may not just reopen it, they may reshape it, in a way that flips the U.S. dollar itself. Maybe a response, maybe a silent weapon that empties the dollar’s value. A tactic not only clean, but effective. Rather than unleashing missiles, Tehran has chosen a far subtler strike: currency. Iran has granted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, however, with one condition that has challenged the future: the permits would only be granted if the transactions are carried out in the Chinese Yuan, China’s national currency, bypassing the U.S dollar entirely.

This move represents a significant form of economic pressure, allowing Iran to sidestep the U.S. financial system and much of the wider structure of Western sanctions. The initiative places international buyers in a difficult position, as every smart investor would accept the requirement and operate outside the dollar-based system instead of risking losing access to one of the most important energy routes in the world.

This proposal should not be viewed only as an attempt to avoid sanctions; instead, it can be viewed with a third eye, a calculated effort to turn regional crisis into a financial struggle. Without funds, a falling currency, the USA will fail to fund Israel.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints in global commerce. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes through this narrow route that links the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. Any disruption to this passage quickly affects global markets, insurance costs, shipping operations, and the stability of energy supply chains. Iran’s approach, which relies on controlling access to the strait, as they have every right to, forces shipping companies and energy-importing states to make financial decisions that also carry major geopolitical consequences. By linking passage through the strait to transactions conducted in Yuan, Tehran would not only weaken the dominance of dollar-based oil trade but also strengthen its economic relationship with Beijing.

For China, this situation presents a clear strategic opportunity. A rise in yuan-based energy transactions could slowly expand the currency’s presence in global commodity markets. The world’s second-biggest economy will significantly rise, in competition with the US, maybe a threat?

Through this well-aimed approach, Iran not only protects its own economic stability but also contributes to a broader shift that supports China’s long-term financial ambitions.

If oil shipments moving through Hormuz begin to settle in Yuan, even partially, it could represent an early step toward what many analysts describe as the Petro-Yuan system, strengthening China’s currency and increasing Beijing’s influence across global energy markets. This direction would be especially important in Asia, where demand for Gulf oil remains high despite ongoing geopolitical pressure.

For decades, the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global oil trading, commonly known as the petrodollar system, has reinforced American economic and geopolitical power. Dollar-based energy trade has long allowed Washington to enforce sanctions, monitor financial flows, and apply economic pressure on adversaries. However, if we read history, “dominance” without equality, without share, isn’t leadership, it’s control. Hence, Iran’s strategy introduces a challenge to that structure through its growing alignment with China. A shift toward yuan-based oil settlements, even on a limited scale, would gradually weaken that leverage, implementing further complications for the USA.

More broadly, this situation highlights how the nature of conflict is changing in the twenty-first century. Military power still matters, but control over financial systems, trade routes, and supply chains increasingly shapes geopolitical outcomes. One change can defund another. Iran’s approach demonstrates how states can use economic infrastructure as a strategic tool, applying financial pressure rather than relying solely on conventional force.

The Strait of Hormuz tensions may therefore represent more than a temporary maritime dispute. They may signal a deeper shift toward a more fragmented global economic system, where competing currencies and financial networks challenge the long-standing dominance of the dollar-based order. In such an environment, conflicts may increasingly be fought not only with weapons but through financial survival and economic endurance.

If Iran proceeds with a yuan-based passage policy, the effects could extend far beyond the Gulf. Energy markets, financial systems, and geopolitical alliances could all begin to realign.

 

Strategic Alignment for Prosperity: How to Deepen China-Uganda Ties in the 15th Five-Year Plan Era

Posted on By Joshua Kingdom

On March 17th 2025, the Development Watch Centre (DWC) in partnership with her sister organizations (Sino-Uganda Research Centre, Centre for Contemporary China-Africa Studies, and Centre for BRICS Studies Uganda) hosted a half-day symposium at Fairway Hotel in Kampala that analysed the implications of the newly adopted 15th Five-Year Plan for Uganda hence the theme “Strategic Alignment for Prosperity: Deepening China-Uganda Ties in the 15th Five-Year Plan Era.”

Appreciating how immense China’s contribution towards Africa’s development in the last couple of decades has been, and strongly believing that this fact is not about to change, the underlying thread to most of what was said at the event tied things back to what the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) 2026-2030 policy framework means for Uganda― particularly as it relates to the country’s fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV).

In his address therefore, H.E FAN Xuecheng the Chargé d’affaires at the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Uganda assured Kampala as well as other African countries that his homeland viewed their prosperity as integral to the welfare of her domestic economy. The Diplomat went on to explain that as such, Beijing would continue to position her strengths in trade, green energy, science and technology etc. in ways that best set the ground for their development.

The Day’s Guest of Honour, the Managing Director of Uganda Broadcasting Corporation (UBC), Mr David Winston Agaba concurred citing that China’s cooperation with Africa is further bolstered by history given that the Asian super power has always been cordial in her involvements with the continent going as far back as the dispensation of colonialism in which the attitude of western countries was to openly rampage and pillage Africa. The UBC manager then went on to express enthusiasm for DWC’s work saying that it was vital that researchers continue to actively engage with the most pressing issues of our times.

Coming prior to the speeches of the two dignitaries, DWC’s Executive Director Dr Allawi Ssemanda spoke about the unfortunate state of foreign relations that Uganda finds itself in decrying how possible it can be that our leadership has been boxed into partnerships that expressly couch their terms in language that points to the nations on the other side of things as the masters on whom Kampala is at their mercies. In contrast, the academic asserted that China’s win-win model whose spirit guides the 15th five-year plan was far much better all things considered.

Two guests joined the conversation virtually. First is Prof Timothy Kerswell, Distinguished Research Fellow at DWC who laid the ground for the day’s topics. Addressing the conference from Australia, he explained that the Two Sessions was the most important function on China’s political calendar emphasizing that this year’s National People’s Congress and National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference meetings were even more so because they drew Beijing’s governance road map for the next five years.

Dr Vuyo Mjimba the Chief Research Specialist in the Human Sciences Research Council’s Africa Institute of South Africa is the other having made his presentation live from Johannesburg via zoom. Among other things, the South African scholar intimated that it was high time to view research and policy as inseparable cautioning that a lot of the dilemmas that plague Africa had something to do with the fact that very little attention was given to collecting and disseminating critical data. He then pointed out that given China’s track record of respecting Africa’s priorities, African Union member states can seek to synchronize their synergies with her through sectors where they have the comparative advantage e.g. minerals and natural resources.

The symposium closed with two panel sessions starting with one constituted by Hon. Simon Mulongo an international relations consultant together with Counsel Ssemambo Rashid of Ssemambo and Ssemambo Advocates. The latter centred his presentation on the Global Governance Initiative expressing admiration for the reforms that China has been trying to push thereunder not least, the proposal to reimagine the United Nations’ position. The Advocate posited that Beijing’s example was a breath of fresh air for the developing world especially if one looks at the prevailing attitude of other global powers. To illustrate his point, he quoted President’s Trump’s latest remarks on Cuba (i.e. “Taking Cuba, I mean, whether I free it, take it. I could do anything I want with it.”).

Mr Arthur Atuha’s presentation was the very last. Therein, he shared about the promise that lies in the 15th five-year plan for Ugandan export industry. Understood well, the DWC Research Fellow contended that the prospects of NDP IV could be attuned to harness projections of increased consumption in Beijing for the next half a decade.

There you have it, the overwhelming consensus from the day was that the 15th five-year plan had a lot in it for Uganda and that if the moment is seized by Kampala, a lot of the country’s goals set under NDP IV would be realized come 2030.

 

 

China’s Foreign Policy: Making Sense of Wang Yi’s Address

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, recently addressed a press conference on the margins of the 14th National People’s Congress on March 8, 2026. His address was wealthy with insights on almost every major fault line of contemporary geopolitics. The centrality of China in global affairs is now hackneyed. It is the vanguard of the new multipolar world order, the counterweight to Western hegemony.

Perhaps the most profound issue addressed by Wang is his critique and rejection of the U.S’ unipolarity.  He observed that whereas China and the United States have a significant impact on the world, all the more than 190 countries on the planet must be respected. He recognises that world history has always been written by many countries together, and the future of humanity is forged through the collective efforts of all nations. Wang recognises the fundamental truth that diversity is inherent to human society and that multipolarity is the natural state of the international system.

A reading of world history makes clear how humanity was disastrously affected whenever there was great-power rivalry and bloc confrontation. China’s promise to the world is that it will never take the beaten path of seeking hegemony, even as its strength grows. Besides the remarks Wang made on the commitments China makes in its foreign policy, the Chinese constitution is also clear on the principle that the country is to follow an independent foreign policy and is to be committed to pursuing a path of peaceful development. Therefore, Wang was simply reiterating comments by several Chinese leaders who have often declared to the world that no matter how the international situation evolves and how strong China becomes, it will never seek hegemony or expansion.

Therefore, Wang dismissed the “G2” format as a framework for China and the U.S. to address global challenges, even as Beijing seeks bilateral engagement with Washington. And it is not like Wang simply rejects the American framework without an alternative for how the international landscape should evolve. He articulated China’s proposal for building an equal and orderly multipolar world. He explained that in an “Equal” world, we can have an opportunity for every nation, regardless of size or strength, to be respected as an equal member of the international community, and have a place and play its role in a multipolar world. He also explained that “Orderly” means all countries should uphold the widely recognised international rules, namely the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter and the basic norms of international relations.

I largely agree with Wang that every country should see it as a common responsibility to build an equal and orderly multipolar world. Wang urges the major countries with more resources and capabilities to be more generous, shoulder more responsibilities, and set an example of observing rules, honouring commitments and upholding international law. However, it is disappointing to see that this is not the constructive role that some Western nations are seeking.

Wang Yi also made very enlightened comments on U.S.-China relations. H recognises that the relationship between China and the United States is one of far-reaching and global implications. Neither country should therefore ignore the other, as doing so would only lead to mutual misperception and miscalculation. It is cliché that if the two countries slipped into conflict or confrontation, the whole world could suffer a disaster of unprecedented proportions. Wang observes that whereas neither side can remodel the other, they have an opportunity to choose how they want to engage, that is, “to commit to a spirit of mutual respect, to hold the bottom line of peaceful coexistence, and to strive for the prospect of win-win cooperation… That’s what serves the interests of the Chinese and American peoples, and that’s also the expectation of the international community.”

Wang also paid deep thought to the focal point in the current international situation in Iran. He presented China’s attitude on this issue as both objective and impartial. China’s principled position on this issue is the call for cessation of hostilities. Wang made a profound insight that the history of the Middle East tells the world time and again that force provides no solution and armed conflicts will only increase hatred and breed new crises.

If there is nothing Western leaders involved in this conflict could pick from this speech, it should be just the paragraph carrying the above remark. He also called for respecting national sovereignty, since sovereignty is the cornerstone of the current international order. He urged the parties to reject the abuse of force because might does not make right. He called on the parties to observe the principle of noninterference in internal affairs, noting that ‘the people in the Middle East are the true masters of this region. Middle Eastern affairs should be determined by regional countries independently.” And adding that “plotting a colour revolution or seeking regime change will find no popular support.” Wang also encouraged that the hotspot issues of this conflict should be settled politically rather than militarily. He reiterated that the major countries should play a constructive role and use their strengths in goodwill.

Speaking about 2025 as a significant year in Chinese diplomacy, Wang heralded the Global Governance Initiative (GGI) establishedby President Xi Jinping as a key platform to deal with emerging global challenges, the prominent governance deficit in the world, and the severe shock waves undermining multilateralism. He maintained that the most unequivocal requirement of the GGI is that the U.N. keeps pace with the times, improve its governance system through reform, and adapt to the evolving international situation and the changing dynamics in the global balance of power in the 21st century.

One gets a sense from listening to Wang Yi’s press conference remarks that China is currently in perhaps its most confident and assertive era. It has grown the zest to articulate an alternative vision for global order, and suggest alternative frameworks of leadership, rather than simply critique the existing one. What the global foreign policy arena witnesses now is a highly contested space between Western liberal institutionalism, which is losing its appeal, and a Chinese-led pluralism that prioritises sovereignty, non-interference, and South-South solidarity. My hope is that Africa recognises the opportunity and strategic complexity of the times and makes the best of them.

The writer is a senior research fellow | Development Watch Center.

US-Israel Attack on Iran: Time to Implement the Global Security Initiative

Posted on By Joshua Kingdom

Starting on 28th February 2026, the United States of America working hand-in-hand with Israel have been striking at Tehran with heavy military artillery in an operation that has come to be dubbed “Epic Fury.” Less than a day in, several high ranking officials in Iran’s establishment had already lost their lives most notably, the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Gen Mohammad Pakpour, the Defence Minister Brig Gen Aziz Nasirzadeh, and the Defence Council secretary Ali Shamkhani.

With the Red Crescent reporting that at least 200 Iranians have already lost their lives too and more than 700 injured, the US-Israel assault has undoubtedly raised questions pertaining to its legitimacy under international law.

Per the United Nations Charter (Article 2(4)), it is established that states are to refrain from the use of force targeting other sovereigns. What Washington has sought to do then, is argue that its mission in Iran is covered by the exception of self-defence provided for in the said instrument’s Article 51. In their public statements, they have described the attacks as “pre-emptive.”

In the history of warfare however, one will hardly find a party who upon resorting to violence does not bother to justify their conduct as warranted. Consequently, standards have been devised overtime for the international community to test claims of this nature. For self-defence, as Marko Milanovic a public international law scholar at the University of Reading has explained, the party seeking to rely on it must provide unambiguous evidence either of the harm already caused or destruction likely to have been caused if the measure in question had not been taken. In other words, they cannot rely on speculation or generalizations.

Unfortunately, all that President Trump has said so far falls short of this bar. The American leader for instance, has purported that Tehran is pursuing development of Nuclear weaponry something that is not only denied by the Middle Eastern nation but is also disputed by third parties. The International Energy Atomic Agency thus, has severally retained that there is no information supportive of Washington’s assertions. Oman’s Foreign Minister who also doubles as the chief mediator of the US-Iran talks coming immediately before all hell broke loose has equally confirmed that Iran had committed to “never, ever have nuclear material that will create a bomb.”

What these developments appear to be depicting then is but an extension of aggression that has come to be the hallmark of Trump 2.0. Think here about the tariffs regime that even his own Supreme Court declared illegal, the threats to forcefully takeover Greenland and Canada, the invasion of Venezuela etc. If the world does not wake up to the new reality in time, we risk plunging ourselves in a global order ruled by the laws of the jungle where survival for the fittest becomes the order of the day.

In response to this state of affairs, one of the most convincing alternatives is the Global Security Initiative (GSI) put forward by President Xi Jinping of China in 2022 at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference. In part, the GSI can be understood as a modification of Beijing’s broad approach to foreign policy to fit the needs of international peace. Three of its six core tenets thus (i.e. “respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries”, “peacefully resolving differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation”, and “taking the legitimate security concerns of all countries seriously”) directly replicate the principles of “win-win” and “mutual respect” that the global power has championed elsewhere.

At the same time, GSI seeks to reimagine norms devised many years ago in order to suit the changing times. Emphasis on “abiding by the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter” is one such example the other being “commitment to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security.” The latter also best understood as the principle of indivisible security (IS) goes back to the Cold War particularly upon the entry into force of the Helsinki Final Act. What the Communist Party of China (CCP) has done for IS is to contend that a country’s security interests are not only inseparable from those of her immediate neighbours but also those of the rest of the world just as much. This becomes especially important given how much globalization has taken effect.

Crucially, GSI has proven itself to be thorough including through Beijing’s position papers on Afghanistan and the Israel-Palestine war as well as mediation that the CCP has done between Iran and Saudi-Arabia, Fighting factions in Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia etc. If the world could build on this momentum, there is a good chance that the voices of hegemony and repression will be defeated.

Joshua Kingdom is a Research Fellow at the Development Watch Centre.