Tag: Uganda

China Town and the Ugandan Economy: A Debate on Growth and Consumer Choices

Posted on by Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

One of the most difficult yet overly simplified ideas in economics is the economic growth of nations. Economists and pundits seem to always analyse by analogy, connecting dots backwards to define unique or even random experiences of developed nations and claiming that they developed because of certain economic policies they pursued.  The truth is that we know very little to certainly tell what or how countries achieve economic growth. Often, developed countries experience booms and bursts, or even the periods under which their economies experienced fast growth are always disparately distributed, with different characteristics and sometimes similar characteristics that never guarantee growth.

China is a good example to illustrate this point. It is a country famous for pursuing socialism, yet today, there is argaubly growing worry that China, a socialist country, is fundamentally restructuring the capitalist world in ways never before imagined. How is a communist country now being accused of hyper-capitalism? Isn’t this a big irony?

Back to China Town in Uganda; a hypermarket that opened in September and saw an overflow of customers who flocked to it in droves, driving the police to close it down for some time because of the security threat from the mob of buyers that had crowded the parking space at its Lugogo location.

Some critics have expressed fear and warned that China Town spells doom to local entrepreneurs in downtown Kampala who are losing business opportunities because all customers are now flocking to the China store to buy goods at astronomically low prices.

Some have observed it as the newest trend highlighting an already existing, broader issue of global capitalism, where multinational corporations undermine local economies.

I would not interpret or understand China Town as comparable to Western multinational capital at the helm of global capitalism because I see human agency both from Africans/Ugandans and Chinese traders to enter a mutually beneficial trade relationship. This is different from the state-centric phenomenon that exploitative multinational corporations often come with. I think this is also related to the common misinterpretation of all ‘‘Chinese’’ activities under the umbrella of ‘‘China.’’ For instance, industrial parks in Uganda established by the government are usually mistaken for Chinese enterprises because they are constructed with the support of the Chinese. But there is a difference between “made in China” and “made by Chinese.” The point is to have domestic industries, and what makes them domestic is that they serve the interests of the nationals, are run by nationals, and the value of the products is domestically harvested. Even if there are Chinese advisers in the industrial parks, it would not make them Chinese industries.

The question to answer about the China Town phenomenon is: Whom does the China Town business serve?

Droves of customers flock to the supermarket because they are voting with their feet and wallets and are saying, “This serves our interest!”

True, many traders in Kikuubo and Kamapala road may be losing business to China Town, but they are also selling foreign goods, imported at the cost of depleting our country’s foreign exchange reserves. The only debate they can have is as regards customer satisfaction, and it seems customers are not satisfied with paying expensively for “fake” products from Ugandan traders, yet they can buy similar products at half the price in China Town.

I would have argued differently if the fake products sold by Ugandan traders were Ugandan goods because then I would have the understanding that we need to support Indigenous innovation and support domestic manufacturing if it is to improve over the years and give us better products while also growing the size of our economy through manufacturing. But this is not the case.

Local traders in Kikuubo, as President Museveni has emphasized to them often, are simply Ugandans who promote foreigners to leach on Uganda because they are very content with investing their money in importing instead of supporting local manufacturing.

The alternative viewpoint I have on China Town is that it might actually be the engine that supports the growth of the Ugandan Economy in some ways.

How?

By providing Ugandans with affordable high-end goods such as electronics, stationery, and other items needed to perform work more effectively, China Town is likely to greatly improve the productivity of workers by availing them tools to efficiently work and increase output.

This cannot be said of expensive shops in Kampala which many Ugandans cannot afford to buy from to improve their work efficiency and general living conditions, yet they are also importers of foreign goods.

In conclusion, I am not claiming certainty of knowledge as far as predicting what the transformative factors for Uganda’s economy will be. But in analysis, local traders have no locus standi to accuse China Town of affecting the economy. The economy is built by Ugandans who go about their work, and they need tools to work. What is wrong with them buying those tools quite cheaply from a China Town supermarket?

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Center.

Celebrating Fruits of China’s South-South Cooperation Projects in Uganda

Posted on by Joshua Kingdom

In June this year, a three year South-South Cooperation (SSC) agriculture project between the governments of Uganda and China as well as the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) will come to a close. As we look to a renewal that is almost certain, we can take a moment to reflect on the remarkable milestones arrived at during the years in which the partnership has run.

Having commenced by the agreement titled “Technical Assistance Under the South-South Cooperation with the People’s Republic of China in Support of the Development Strategy and Investment Plan 2010/11-2015/16 in the Republic of Uganda” back in 2012, and further extended one more time before its current dispensation, the SSC’s endurance owes to its results which cannot be overstated.

During the first and second phases therefore, there was an introduction of crop varieties that best responded to the needs of local farmers, the most impressive of which is perhaps proso millet. Its attributes made it more suitable for planting than the local finger millet– it grows for a shorter time (75 days rather than 90), requires less grains in planting (5kg per acre instead of 25), bares more yield (up to three times), and is drought resistant. Also witnessed, was astounding realizations in cases that involved diary farming where cows are reported to provide at least seven liters each per day up from just two.

The present SSC is not only interesting because it builds on these numbers however, but also because it makes part of a broader framework in which China has in recent years led an effort of helping contribute to the faster realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Dubbed the Global Development Initiative (GDI), this program singles out eight SDGs that Beijing feels require specific attention for the sake of the developing economies post Covid-19. This is further true now that 2030 is not far off.

In his 2022 address to the ministerial meeting of the Group of Friends i.e. the umbrella of nations and organizations that support the GDI cause, Chinese Foreign Minister (FM) Wang Yi, among other things outlined improvement in agricultural practices as key in realizing SDG 1 (ending poverty). To this end, he highlighted that, his country would world over restart the SSC which had up to that point concluded.

The FM further spelled out bold measures to accompany this arrangement that Uganda has since benefited from e.g. an agreement for technical support entered by China’s Academy of Agricultural Sciences and its International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development with FAO along with donation of data imperative for policy making to the United Nations like on arable land and forest coverage provided by the SDGSAT-1 satellite.

Interwoven around four objectives (development of aquaculture value chain, supporting livestock improvement, establishment of a technological transfer base, and development of high yield rice and foxtail rice) thus, it comes as no surprise that the period between 2022 and 2025 has been even more successful.

The SSC project during this time in the country has ensured that farmers in the areas of focus have very highly educated experts at their disposal for consultation something that greatly turned around their fortunes. In terms of the broader picture, there have been several collaborations between in-line institutions and their colleagues in China. Most notably, joint research by Shanghai Agro Biological Gene Center and the National Agricultural Research Organization resulted into the release of WDR-73, a genetically modified variety of rice that is incredible in its yield and doubles as drought resistant.

Food and Agriculture Organisation Uganda country Representative  Antonio Querido (maroon shirt) with Chinese ambassador to Uganda Zhang Lizhong (3rd right) the fingerling stocking activity at Aquaculture Research and Development Centre in Kajjansi on June 12, 2023 (Photo: Daily Monitor/ABUBAKER LUBOWA )

There has also been several sponsored visits of Ugandan officials to different regions of China for purposes of benchmarking best practices as well as in brokerage of associated policies. While attending the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation last year thus, the Minister of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, and Fisheries Hon. Frank Tumwebaze entered an agreement with the General Administration of Customs of the Republic of China that allowed Uganda to export aquatic life and Chilies to the over 1.4 billion people market of China.

According to the minister, this was also the first time that Uganda would be exporting the second product to any part of the world there demonstrating China’s commitment to walk the talk. Therefore, as we approach the end of this partnership, considering the multitudes of success it came with, celebrations are in order. Viva  China-Uganda Cooperation.

The writer is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

 

Bad Roads and Kampala Traffic Woes: How did China Address It

Posted on by Shemei Ndawula

“If you can drive in Kampala you can drive anywhere in the world”. This phrase, often uttered in good humor betrays a perhaps poorly kept national secret that Kampala is fast approaching the carrying capacity of its own public roads. Behind the social media sensation that abound the 2023 #PotholeExhibition was also a daunting revelation that our growing middle class may need to explore alternative methods of showcasing their progress than buying more private cars adding to the mounting cesspool of Kampala traffic.

To deal with the breakdown of public traffic infrastructure in Kampala we may need to look towards China and how it so aptly used a similar situation a few decades ago as the springboard for its modern public transport system. At the moment, if China says it has the second most efficient public transit system in the world, no country can dare claim to have the first. Recently China unveiled the CR450 model high speed train with a top speed of 450km per hour. In layman’s terms this means that someone in Mbarara can go to work in Kampala with a roughly 40 minutes commute. That’s a much shorter time than it takes an average taxi from a suburb like Kira to get to the Old taxi park.

China discovered decades ago that the best solution to an urban housing crisis is an efficient transit system. This is a lesson we should do well to learn because we find ourselves at the same crossroads China was at with a young, rapidly growing population and swiftly shrinking physical public space.

Uganda’s ambitions for economic transformation hinge on one critical factor: infrastructure development. Modern transportation systems, energy networks, and industrial hubs are the foundations upon which vibrant economies are built. For a country at the heart of East Africa, strategically positioned as a potential regional logistics hub, the stakes are exceptionally high. In charting its path forward, Uganda would do well to look toward China; not only as a partner but also as a source of inspiration for what transformative infrastructure development can achieve.

More importantly we have what the Chinese never had, which is a global superpower eager  to aid us in this transition with the recipe for sustainable urban development without ulterior imperialistic designs. We even have Chinese companies bidding openly to share their infrastructural knowledge and technological progress to ease this transition. Beyond technical expertise, Chinese companies bring efficiency and a focus on results. Their ability to execute projects quickly and at competitive costs makes them valuable partners for developing countries seeking to modernize their economies without delays or inflated budgets.

China has demonstrated remarkable leadership in infrastructure, particularly through its high-speed rail network. With over 42,000 kilometers of track crisscrossing the country, this network is the largest and most advanced in the world. Trains traveling at such speeds connect cities, reduce travel times, and energize regional economies. What sets this achievement apart is its sheer scale and inclusivity. This model, combining technical excellence with a strategic vision, offers important lessons for Uganda.

China’s experience shows how large-scale infrastructure investment, when strategically aligned with national development goals, can be a game-changer. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, amplifies this potential. As a global development strategy, the BRI has financed and built infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe. For Uganda, the initiative provides a pathway to access long-term financing and technical assistance for transformative projects. Already, the  Chinese-backed Kampala-Entebbe Expressway has cut the daily commute time between the two cities by almost half. These kinds of developments are not just about convenience; they have real economic impact by improving trade logistics and encouraging investment.

The philosophy underpinning the BRI is particularly relevant to Uganda’s needs. Infrastructure is not seen in isolation but as part of a larger economic framework. Roads, railways, and energy grids are designed to connect markets, foster regional integration, and spark new value chains. For Uganda, whose Vision 2040 highlights the role of infrastructure in achieving industrialization, this approach is a natural fit.

Our  infrastructure needs extend far beyond the extraction and export of raw materials. We need transport systems that enable local industries to flourish, connecting farms to factories and factories to regional markets.

China’s role in Uganda’s development is not merely about financing or building infrastructure. It also provides a model of what is possible when infrastructure is treated as a driver of economic transformation. The high-speed rail network in China has not only revolutionized transportation but also spurred urbanization, boosted tourism, and enhanced trade. This holistic approach offers valuable lessons for Uganda as it seeks to modernize its transport systems, diversify its economy, and connect more meaningfully with regional and global markets.

Shemei Ndawula is a Senior Research Fellow at Development Watch Center.

 

 

Just Build Kampala Roads! Lessons from China’s Transport System

Posted on by Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

Recently, I set out to study the economic analysis of China’s transport system. Many writers I read considered the impact of transportation infrastructure on China’s economy with shared criticisms. One of the major criticisms I found taxed against China’s transport system was that although it comprises a wide network of roads, railways, and airports across its huge territory, the transport network, especially of roads tends to concentrate on the more economically developed coastal areas and inland cities along major rivers. As soon as I read this critique of China’s transport system, I understood that it was actually the explainer for China’s economic triumph. In building roads and railways in major business centers, China leveraged its strength to further expand its economic output. In Uganda, the government’s policy on road construction is focused on ensuring Uganda is connected “border to border” which is not a bad thing had it not been at the expense of constructing greater Kampala roads to leverage our significant economic dividends in the region.

I suspect that the construction of roads in Uganda is more (this is not to say it is the only reason) a political rather than an economic project. I also suspect that the president has much to say in the decision-making process of awarding contracts for major road constructions. The president decides to have a road constructed in an area because the local population there demanded for one… because their children “want to see tarmac also!” As such, we have roads built in areas where the net return on investment is simply political capital for the president/ the ruling government at the expense of Uganda’s economic development.

I suggest that road construction should be looked at foremost as an economic enterprise with measurable returns on investment. For every road constructed, we must be able to measure the efficiency and profitability it will produce in return. Uganda can calculate its return on investment from its road construction by assessing the economic benefits generated from road investments compared to the costs. For instance, we must be able to calculate the initial construction costs including materials, labor, and land acquisition; maintenance and operational costs over time; and environmental and social costs e.g., displacement of people and wildlife, and pollution. We also must be able to calculate the benefits estimated from the investment. For instance, increased business activities due to better transport; lower vehicle maintenance and fuel costs; shorter travel times for goods and people; reduction in road accidents and fatalities; more efficient movement of goods and services and increased land and property values near improved roads. To know the net benefit from the road constructed, we would have to subtract the total cost of construction from the total benefits estimated from the investment. Does Uganda bother with these calculations while undertaking road construction projects? I think not.

Without assessing whether our road investments are yielding positive economic and social returns, the huge amounts of money sunk into road construction are simply buried, not planted investments.

China’s transportation infrastructure investments are carefully calculated to ensure they contribute significantly to China’s GDP. For every highway built, China targets to improve logistics and reduce costs. For every railway built, China has done a study and established the need to enhance efficiency and increase overall productivity from a certain economic zone. For instance, China’s high-speed rail system is intentionally built to connect economic hubs with realisable productivity to facilitate business expansion by reducing travel time and increasing market accessibility. If we had these calculations in Uganda, the districts of Kampala, Wakiso and Mukono would take at least 50 percent of the road construction budget of Uganda.

Why?

Kampala, Wakiso and Mukono districts produce 65% of Uganda’s total Gross Domestic Product and 75% of the country’s total tax revenue collection. The bewildering irony is that despite such an enormous contribution to our nation’s economic output, these enterprising districts receive less than 2 percent of the budget allocated to road construction and maintenance for the rest of the country. This is a policy miscalculation I can never comprehend!

There is not an ounce of understanding of economic prioritization in how Uganda makes investment decisions on road construction. China concentrates its road construction in economically developed coastal areas and inland cities along major rivers such as the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Bohai Economic Rim because they are the country’s economic powerhouses. These are areas that contribute significantly to China’s GDP through manufacturing, trade, and services. It is obvious that developing transport infrastructure in these regions maximizes economic returns even if many other parts of the country may lack comprehensive transport infrastructure. Why don’t we make this prioritization too? Why is it too hard to see?

China’s coastal cities also host major ports like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, which handle a significant portion of China’s international trade. These regions also have high population densities. So, it makes sense to ensure efficient road networks in these areas to smoothen the transportation of goods and people between ports and industrial hubs. Following the same logic, Uganda should have a detailed road and railway network to ensure efficient transportation of goods from Malaba, through Jinja, Mukono to Kampala. Why do we have one, narrow, dilapidated road carrying the entire volume of goods into the country from Malaba?

It cannot be that the country’s understandable budget constraints are the cause of Uganda’s poor transport system in urban areas. Not even China has enough money to build every road in their country. It all comes down to prioritization of investment and strictly investing in roads with realisable economic output. Uganda’s road network spans 160,000 km. 21,000 km of that are national trunk roads, 38,600 km are district roads, 20,000 km are urban roads (covering cities, municipalities, and towns), and 80,000 km are community access roads. The country’s revenues simply can’t sustain constructing all these roads. But basic economic considerations would long have made it clear to us that we must concentrate on the 20,000 km of urban roads to create efficiency in these economic hubs which would in return generate the revenues to expand road construction to other areas across the country.

The mathematics seems simple. The return on investment looks great. Why can’t our government make policy shifts and do what is necessary?

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Center.

D.R Congo’s Problems: Time To Try China’s Global Security Initiative?

Posted on by Alan Collins Mpewo

From the wake of global biases, arose Democratic Republic of Congo (herein referred to as D.R Congo). It is one of the most unfortunate Republics globally. Some argue, that it the most unfortunate in East and Central Africa. For a country known as the cradle of wealth, it has been known for a wealth of wars. Imagine, with some of the world’s largest deposits of copper, diamond, gold, tantalum; and natural forests. Interventions have been proposed in the past. Responses too. But it never seems enough. Such is what comes of a war torn community. Disunity in the same fashion. The present pain in D.R Congo cannot be looked at a mere present day lens. Its origin is from way back. Some historians and academics of the Congo basin have even gone ahead to argue that the woes are so harshly dated to the days of old before the European colonialists entered this rich basin.

Today, Democratic Republic of Congo is in the United Nations headlines as it was in the 1990s during the Mobutu heat. As all modern day conflicts, opportunists keep lurking. And so is the story of D.R Congo. Multinational corporations, direct neocolonial representatives, and its border neighbors have been recorded to have had a contribution to it. To loot, to mine, and destabilize. This is even publicly documented that to some, there is even court judgment to it. I raise you the International Court of Justice decision of D.R Congo Versus Uganda. Insurgents have equally been a plague. Over 6 million people have since lost lives to the non ending conflicts. Unfortunate it is to state, that more lives will still be lost. The UN Security Council has had a busy end of January, 2025 with the D.R Congo problem, and each day coming into February, more revelations keep arising.

From M23 rebels, to allegations of Rwanda’s financing of these rebels, and now South Africa SADC peacekeepers and UN Staff getting caught in-between the conflict. The state of affairs has become so complex that now, it is a geopolitical issue that has gone as far as introducing tribal questions of belonging. Living the legacy of the scramble and partition of Africa. Border tribes and their reception in the isolated borders today – the Tutsi are that group. The United Nations notwithstanding, where is the African Union? A test to the new African Union Council post the Organization’s elections in early 2025. It is that point in time when the African Union has to outlive the bad reputation it has come to be crowned with. It is understood that regional relations across the African continent have become rusty that divided response is foreseeable.

As noted in a publication by Development Watch Centre in December, 2023 there had been systematic neglect of D.R Congo and Sudan by the international community because of the spotlight to Ukraine and Gaza. The call was on African Union to reign in on the situation. An approach has to be devised by the Commission to foresee protection of the vulnerable communities whose hope is lingering. The conflict in D.R Congo is telling of the underlying status of the governance fabric on the continent. It rather comes off as shameful and indicting on the holistic leadership on the Africa continent that by the time such a conflict escalated to the United Nations Security Council, the basic interventions had been issued by regional blocs than continental.

Leaders from the regional blocs of The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and The East African Community (EAC) pose for a family photograph before attending a joint summit to discuss the conflict in eastern Congo, in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania February 8, 2025. Photo credit: Reuters

Politics has always been rusty business on the African continent. The greatest gift for D.R Congo is going to be genuine extract of politicking from the soul searching process. Right now the world is divided on who to stand with. South Africa has taken to the international scene against Rwanda on accusations of funding M23 rebels whose activities have recently seen a takeover of major Eastern towns of D.R Congo. As such, the conversation has taken a greatly different trajectory for where it matters most – the safety of the citizens of D.R Congo. Interestingly, many countries on the UN Security Council came out steady on the condemnation of Rwanda. But where were they when D.R Congo needed their voice earlier before that – when alleged genocide motives were reported perpetrated by multilateral mining companies.

Such selective responses have been seen at such time after South Africa stood strong. But should it not have been a role of the African Union? Is the conflict so complex for the African Union? Or is it a case of interests? It goes without saying that in the past the African Union has tried to cease the conflicts with the recent one having commenced during an emergency AU seating recently on the 26th January, 2025. The sincere expectation is that the arrangements that will arise therefrom for the extended engagements will be forthcoming without the past biases. The people of D.R Congo deserve a clear-sighted African Union during this era of biased alliances.

China in 2021 advocated for the adoption of the Global Security Initiative for all countries, and in there, it laid some key highlights that would be important to consider as a means of achieving the end result of global peace. At the core of its call for diffusing tensions, it called for an outward outlook for the root causes of the conflict as a guide to engaging in meaningful dialogue among all parties on a resolution table. The concept paper is comprehensive and the African Union can perhaps embrace it to lay a framework for implementation, adapted to Africa’s context. Such will be the positive way of the never-ending conflicts for which, as history has showed, parties on reconciliation tables fail to face off with regarding the bottom standing root causes.

Alan Collins Mpewo is a Senior Research Fellow, Development Watch Centre.

Uganda, China is Here; Let Economic Revolution Begin!

Posted on by Shemei Ndawula

Recently, at my weekly book club meeting at FEMRITE Bukoto, I met a white foreign policy enthusiast, Tobias. Introducing myself as a fellow of Ugandan and Regional think tank Development Watch Center, he excitedly invited me to share coffee with him at a popular restaurant along Acacia Avenue popular with foreign tourists and Ugandan elites. “They now have ChinaToday” he gleefully revealed. I stared back at him with an unmistakably perplexed expression on my face. A little confused, he asked “you know China Today, right?” And I fumbled with words for the next few seconds as I tried to explain to him how surprised I was that someone with a hazy Australian/ British accent would walk up to me to discuss China Today. With every passing month of the past decade, it’s becoming more and more clear that China is finally here.

The phenomenon that is China’s rising cooperation in the African continent is often treated with suspicion and mistrust especially because China in many ways has revolutionized the way world powers associate with Africa. Previously, Africa was postured as a perpetual backland of underdeveloped, under privileged, uneducated and uncivilized communities. This is why most of the previous foreign interventions have been geared towards crisis mitigation and not capacity building. It is said that at the turn of the past century, the erstwhile great Ottoman Empire was described as the “Sick man of Europe”, one can argue that by the end of the previous century Africa was successfully postured as “the sick man of the world”. Indeed, on 13th May 2000, United Kingdom’s The Economist branded Africa “The Hopeless Continent.” Yes, UK’s major New Paper baptized entire African continent “Hopeless.”

And that is why, over the last decade Africa has seen its partnership with China deepen significantly. This is because the People’s Republic of China does not necessarily always come in as a crisis mitigation crusader (although they were valuable allies in the recent COVID-19 pandemic and similar) but as a partner in capacity building. Having made so much progress with its own economy and social welfare over the past three decades, China is perhaps the most qualified among the biggest world economic powers to advance to Africa experience-based insight because these are changes that have happened within our lifetime and prove that any nation, through sheer social cohesion and visionary leadership can transform its fortune and rise on the global stage. In many ways we are following in their footsteps, China walked so that Africa can run.

A brilliant example of this is the green nuclear power plant that is in advanced planning stages to be set up in Buyende (about 150 kilometers North of Kampala Capital City).  The plant which is projected to commence operations by 2031 will add a whopping 2000 megawatts to the national electricity grid which currently stands at 1500 megawatts. This will spur the further industrialization of Uganda attracting more Foreign Direct Investment within the country as well as valuable jobs for the local population. Additionally, this green renewable energy will cut down on the carbon footprint of many industries and manufacturing plants who can then export their products all over the world without need to pay for the carbon credits for environmental pollution, nuclear energy is practically carbon free making it one of the most environmentally friendly means of power generation.

Previously, prior attempts to invest in and set up nuclear energy facilities in Uganda and elsewhere on the continent have been subject to harsh criticism especially by western powers who view Africans either as harboring undisclosed desire to produce nuclear weapons or simply too ignorant to run the facilities effectively. Not only are these assumptions baseless but they are also quite ironic considering where they’re coming from. As the world positions itself in the march from fossil fuels, the only way African countries can ever hope for a chance at energy self reliance is by exploring all the best available options instead of the previous energy apartheid where only the most powerful and privileged countries were allowed access to nuclear technology. Given China’s stellar track record especially in nuclear research and its willingness to train the natives and share its technology, Uganda can get worthwhile value from its rich Uranium natural deposits instead of simply peddling the mineral for sale on the world market. This development is a major step in the right direction of Uganda becoming a continental manufacturing hub within the next decades.

What makes the Chinese multilateral development and diplomatic strategy an astounding success when it comes to Africa relations is the ability of China to develop broad based development and capacity building initiatives. In Uganda, right on the heels of the declaration of the intention to build the Buyende Nuclear power plant is the reveal of a proposed Uganda-China industrial park to be setup in Tororo and projected to create over 100,000 jobs. To connect all these the Chinese Exim bank as well as the government of China will be funding the Construction of the Standard Gauge Railway from Mombasa to Kampala. This broad-based strategy if implemented well can spark an economic revolution that places Uganda and the greater East African region in the vanguard of the economic and technological rising of Africa.

Shemei Ndawula, is a Senior Research Fellow, Development Watch Centre

Improved Technology Is Vital in Answering Uganda and Africa’s Energy  Dilemma 

Posted on by Arthur Atuha

The World Bank estimates that one billion people – of which a big fraction is in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia – have no access to electricity! Relatedly, the African Development Bank (ADB)  explains that Sub-Saharan Africa cannot realise its development targets with current shortage of electricity stressing that the region needs USD 130-170 billion annually if it is to address its power challenges. Some experts argue that this presents a major barrier to social economic transformation touching major development indicators like health, education, poverty reduction, food production, gender equality, livelihoods among others.

Indeed, President Yoweri Museveni has often explained that “lack of infrastructure such as electricity” can impede development aspirations by among others causing high cost of doing business stating that lack of energy is one of major bottlenecks the continent is grappling with. Uganda’s Vision 2040’s whose aim is “A transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years” undercores the importance of energy in any country’s social-economic development. The potential demand is seemingly growing with stretches from agriculture, manufacturing and domestic consumption. Digital infrastructure and innovation in the Power sector are meant to foster entrepreneurship but how do we achieve this at the earliest times anyway?

With several sources of power such as Nuclear, thermal, biomass, solar and hydro, supply is ceasing to be a challenge for Uganda’s dream but rather demand triggered in-terms of load growth, electricity access and quality of service mapped against the cost of electricity. The Grid development plan (2018-2040) indicates growth in sales by UETCL of 9% partly due to exportation of electricity to neighboring countries like Kenya. Nonetheless, the demand side in Uganda has continued to portray potential in the next future thus the need to match it to supply.

Global energy targets have also continued to be enforced especially through donations, grants and Foreign Domestic Investments (FDIs) calling for compliance to conditions such as affordable and clean energy which is number 7 priority of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 7) and number SDG number 13 – climate action with notable environmental regulations especially those relating to green energy and reduction of carbon emissions for example the use of electric vehicles that are eco-friendly. This has fronted Technology as a feasible solution to solve power issues globally like never before for which Uganda should not be indifferent.

China is already playing a key role especially in supporting energy infrastructure development especially in Africa and the entire global south. China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is one of main vehicles Beijing has been using to fund and support energy infrastructure development including Uganda’s Karuma and Isimba hydropower stations. Also, through Chinese State-Owned firms, Beijing’s role in ensuring global transformation of the power sector is very visible and commendable. China Southern Power Grid (CSG) , a state-owned enterprise that operates in China’s five provinces including Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan has demonstrated digital AI plus power systems (Green) in Hainan province with low carbon development at 28% energy usage in China. With these targets of sustainability, renewables are becoming irreplaceable thus the need to attract an interdisciplinary approach of integration.

With demand, system stability is seen to be the biggest challenge however with appropriate planning parameters and investment in climate friendly portfolios and products, these can guarantee reliable and resilient power systems, for example replacing generators and inverters with converters.

Uganda’s electricity problems are largely associated with accessibility, reliability and energy losses some of which are underpinned to vandalism. Investment in digital infrastructure such as drones that have an AI inbuilt mechanism can be used for smart monitoring of both transmission and distribution network lines especially in the highly risk areas like the North-eastern part of Uganda (Karamoja region) that is prone to insecurity thus threatening the safety of staff operators.

The path of investment in Technology has seen CSG become a performance benchmark in China with its power reliability hitting nearly 100%, accessibility stands at 100% with sufficient energy storage to beat outages, cost of power has dropped by 60% in the past decade due to the pricing mechanism that is market established among the 38 OECD countries. This has stimulated economic growth and social benefits including improved competitiveness with China’s scale increasing from 11 trillion yuan in 2012 to over 50 trillion yuan in 2022.  It is imperative to associate such achievements to be driven by market demand, technological innovation and government support.

On 9th December 2024, CSG launched the implementation of a new power system to achieve cleanliness and low carbon emissions of power supply by 2035. This is to have a composition of Wind PV, hydro, nuclear and hydrogen as renewables are becoming a more reliable substitute for fossil fuels. Safety and sufficiency being pre-requisites, development is meant to advance in-tandem to enhance reliability with

They built a back-up power supply coordinating the large power grids to the distributed smart grids guaranteeing a stable electricity system operation. Cost effectiveness and efficiency being key, the electricity tariff will further decline due to the improved electricity market mechanism increasing terminal energy consumption to 42% by 2035. This demonstrates synergy between supply and demand with foundations from flexibility and intelligence thus optimizing source grid integration. If the different energy sector players in Uganda (ERA, UEGCL, UETCL, UEDCL) through the ministry of Energy explored such opportunities of technology advancements, Uganda could become among the first developing countries to witness the benefits of the new power supply system gradually by 2035. With UMEME out, maybe Uganda and Africa in general should  borrow a leaf from China’s CSG. The company has already helped a number of countries such as Vietnam, Chile, Peru, Laos and Luxenberg among others to significantly improve their power supply by significantly reducing power losses in process of distribution among others through use of advanced technology.

The writer is a Research Fellow at the Development watch Centre.

Smart Urban Planning: Benchmarking China to Solve Kampala’s Traffic Crisis

Posted on by Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

It is estimated that 64% of Uganda’s GDP and 75% of total national revenue collection comes from the Kampala Metropolitan area. To maintain and increase this level of productivity, Kampala needs to have a smooth flow of traffic on good roads. As factors currently stand, millions of the country’s most productive population segment lose productive hours of work seated in deadlock traffic in Kampala’s congested, pot-holed, narrow roads.  On average, about 5-6 hours are wasted daily on the road by workers who are bogged down in the morning and evening when they are going to or coming from work. This is even besides counting the physical and mental health costs urban traffic congestion has on people daily.

Some analyses have concluded that Kampala’s problem is not about a lack of financial resources to build the roads, but one of bureaucratic procurement procedures. It is established that in 2016, Uganda received $300 million from African Development Bank to repair and/or reconstruct some of the major roads in Kampala. This was followed by the award of tenders and contracts by Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) in 2020. Those who lost in the awarding process petitioned the PPDA and other agencies to bog down the commencement of works because of the agents involved in the bidding chain who are always calculating for cuts off of the awards. Almost five years later, no serious works have commenced. The little patchwork done to fill a few potholes and clean drainages has been done by the Special Forces Command (SFC) under the direct intervention of Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba. The deleterious effect of these delays is multiplied into not just productivity lost in traffic congestion but also in hefty interests that the government has to keep paying on money it has not even utilised.

My concern is not even about redoing the road network in the entire Kampala Metropolitan Area which definitely must be done at some time if Kampala is to be rescued from being a large slum. I’m concerned rather with making the city workable as is currently – to cut down the traffic on our roads at an affordable cost.

I believe this is possible because of the following reasons.

Kampala traffic does not normally involve long lines of cars congested along roads. Often, you find that the traffic is intense in an area spanning about eight kilometres. Other parts of the roads are normally freely flowing with few cars.

This implies that congestion happens at intersections or what may be called “choke points.” These are points where we have roundabouts such as Wandegeya, Jinja road traffic lights area, Mulago, Bwaise, Busega, Lubigi and other such places. Other choke points are sections where more than two roads meet.

If there was a smooth flow of traffic at these choke points, cars would never be congested for hours on most of Kampala’s roads, even if they remained in their current state of shambolic narrowness.

With a population of 1.4 billion people, and hundreds of millions of people in individual provincial cities, China is a good country to benchmark with in terms of dealing with deadly traffic. The country innovatively improved its traffic problem and now enjoys high productivity from its citizens.

Let us look at China’s most reasonable and sustainable strategies which enabled it to control traffic congestion having undertaken many ineffective measures from which it improved.

China was notorious for deadly urban traffic congestion in cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shangai and Shenzen.

Like Kampala, China’s cities faced congestion especially at intersections of wider roads, causing excessively long waiting hours at red lights, and general traffic disorder at intersections. This was a major cause of inconvenience.

This, I think, is Kampala’s major traffic problem today, and China offers lessons on overcoming it affordably.

China introduced policies to improve the service level of intersections. This involved building flyovers and pedestrian overpasses, and enhancing the efficiency of road networks and places with high volumes of cars. The goal was to increase the space supply of motor vehicles and expand the capacity of road traffic at choke points to avoid standstill congestion.

Given the fact that Kampala is a small city, with few major roundabouts and intersections, it is possible to invest our meagre resources to concentrate on dissolving traffic at such critical intersections such as Wandegeya traffic lights, Mulago, Busega, Jinja road and other such areas. This would include building pedestrian over-walks like the one at the former clock tower. These would consume pedestrian traffic smoothly and safely, leaving roads for motorists.

The boda boda cyclists would also have to be given special lanes at the points of intersection or be redirected to other roads that bypass the choke point areas. With that, cars would never have to stop at traffic lights and cause hours of congestion on a daily.

Following years of research, China established that the “sparse block collocation” policy is the most sustainable and fundamental congestion control measure. This policy involved the design of walkable streets and pedestrian scale blocks to enhance pedestrian traffic; incorporating pedestrian safety and convenience requirements into architectural design; reducing the demand for motor vehicles by creating bicycle-friendly road networks; increasing the use of public transport by building public transport-oriented streets and communities; advocating mixed land-use patterns to disperse public travel destinations; and establishing public green spaces and services within walking distance of each other. The benefits of instituting this policy were several, including achieving more balanced employment and housing for citizens, shortening commuting distances, and reducing traffic demand in cities. This could be a good policy to benchmark on in future when Uganda has the resources to redesign the greater Kampala area completely, which we must do at some point!

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Center.

Smart Urban Planning: Benchmarking China to Solve Kampala’s Traffic Crisis

Posted on by Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

It is estimated that 64% of Uganda’s GDP and 75% of total national revenue collection comes from the Kampala Metropolitan area. To maintain and increase this level of productivity, Kampala needs to have a smooth flow of traffic on good roads. As factors currently stand, millions of the country’s most productive population segment lose productive hours of work seated in deadlock traffic in Kampala’s congested, pot-holed, narrow roads.  On average, about 5-6 hours are wasted daily on the road by workers who are bogged down in the morning and evening when they are going to or coming from work. This is even besides counting the physical and mental health costs urban traffic congestion has on people daily.

Some analyses have concluded that Kampala’s problem is not about a lack of financial resources to build the roads, but one of bureaucratic procurement procedures. It is established that in 2016, Uganda received $300 million from African Development Bank to repair and/or reconstruct some of the major roads in Kampala. This was followed by the award of tenders and contracts by Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) in 2020. Those who lost in the awarding process petitioned the PPDA and other agencies to bog down the commencement of works because of the agents involved in the bidding chain who are always calculating for cuts off of the awards. Almost five years later, no serious works have commenced. The little patchwork done to fill a few potholes and clean drainages has been done by the Special Forces Command (SFC) under the direct intervention of Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba. The deleterious effect of these delays is multiplied into not just productivity lost in traffic congestion but also in hefty interests that the government has to keep paying on money it has not even utilised.

My concern is not even about redoing the road network in the entire Kampala Metropolitan Area which definitely must be done at some time if Kampala is to be rescued from being a large slum. I’m concerned rather with making the city workable as is currently – to cut down the traffic on our roads at an affordable cost.

I believe this is possible because of the following reasons.

Kampala traffic does not normally involve long lines of cars congested along roads. Often, you find that the traffic is intense in an area spanning about eight kilometres. Other parts of the roads are normally freely flowing with few cars.

This implies that congestion happens at intersections or what may be called “choke points.” These are points where we have roundabouts such as Wandegeya, Jinja road traffic lights area, Mulago, Bwaise, Busega, Lubigi and other such places. Other choke points are sections where more than two roads meet.

If there was a smooth flow of traffic at these choke points, cars would never be congested for hours on most of Kampala’s roads, even if they remained in their current state of shambolic narrowness.

With a population of 1.4 billion people, and hundreds of millions of people in individual provincial cities, China is a good country to benchmark with in terms of dealing with deadly traffic. The country innovatively improved its traffic problem and now enjoys high productivity from its citizens.

Let us look at China’s most reasonable and sustainable strategies which enabled it to control traffic congestion having undertaken many ineffective measures from which it improved.

China was notorious for deadly urban traffic congestion in cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shangai and Shenzen.

Like Kampala, China’s cities faced congestion especially at intersections of wider roads, causing excessively long waiting hours at red lights, and general traffic disorder at intersections. This was a major cause of inconvenience.

This, I think, is Kampala’s major traffic problem today, and China offers lessons on overcoming it affordably.

China introduced policies to improve the service level of intersections. This involved building flyovers and pedestrian overpasses, and enhancing the efficiency of road networks and places with high volumes of cars. The goal was to increase the space supply of motor vehicles and expand the capacity of road traffic at choke points to avoid standstill congestion.

Given the fact that Kampala is a small city, with few major roundabouts and intersections, it is possible to invest our meagre resources to concentrate on dissolving traffic at such critical intersections such as Wandegeya traffic lights, Mulago, Busega, Jinja road and other such areas. This would include building pedestrian overwalks like the one at the former clock tower. These would consume pedestrian traffic smoothly and safely, leaving roads for motorists.

The boda boda cyclists would also have to be given special lanes at the points of intersection or be redirected to other roads that bypass the choke point areas. With that, cars would never have to stop at traffic lights and cause hours of congestion on a daily.

Following years of research, China established that the “sparse block collocation” policy is the most sustainable and fundamental congestion control measure. This policy involved the design of walkable streets and pedestrian scale blocks to enhance pedestrian traffic; incorporating pedestrian safety and convenience requirements into architectural design; reducing the demand for motor vehicles by creating bicycle-friendly road networks; increasing the use of public transport by building public transport-oriented streets and communities; advocating mixed land-use patterns to disperse public travel destinations; and establishing public green spaces and services within walking distance of each other. The benefits of instituting this policy were several, including achieving more balanced employment and housing for citizens, shortening commuting distances, and reducing traffic demand in cities. This could be a good policy to benchmark on in future when Uganda has the resources to redesign the greater Kampala area completely, which we must do at some point!

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Center.

UGANDA’S OIL OPPORTUNITY: A GREEN LIGHT FOR PROGRESS, OR A RED FLAG FOR THE HYPOCRITES?

Posted on by Salim Abila Asuman

In today’s word, oil is often dressed in an outfit of negativity, it is seen as the villain in the tale of environmental degradation and climate change. But what many fail to recognise is the vital role that this remarkable resource has played in shaping our present and propelling us into the future.

From powering innovation and industry to underpinning economic growth and development, oil has been the unsung hero in the history of human civilisation. While it might be dressed in the unfashionable outfit of controversy and critique, the truth is that much of what we enjoy today for instance advanced technology, global connectivity, and enhanced living standards owe their existence to this powerful, yet misunderstood substance.

It is time to peel back the layers of misunderstanding and appreciate the essential contributions of China National Offshore Oil Corporation’s (CNOOC) and EACOP’S exploration of oil in Uganda’s oil fields in the Lake Albert region that is estimated to hold over six (6) billion barrels of crude oil

The stance I have taken above stems from a compelling discussion I had with Ogwal Jabez an electronic Engineer. This is what he had to say:

He postulates that an overlooked reality of battery waste might outshine all benefits in going green if we do not find proper methods of disposing of them. This is particularly poignant in the wake of Uganda’s increasing oil potential across areas like the Albertine Graben, Hoima Basin, and other regions estimated to harbor mega reserves, which could turn around Uganda’s economy if properly utilised.

Ogwal insists that underutilized oil wealth in Uganda can spark economic development. “These unused deposits are bound to turn things around for Uganda,” he says. We are already witnessing the economic dividends coming from the sector, with over 14,000 jobs created so far, 90% of which are held by Ugandans.” With an estimated potential boost of $9 billion to Uganda’s economy, the oil industry offers a tangible opportunity for increasing Uganda’s GDP by 22%.

Ogwal argues that against the rising tide of expectations for renewable energy stands the true environmental cost of batteries that would store energy harnessed from the wind and sun. “Everybody wants to go green, but no one is talking about the elephant in the room, which is how to dispose of batteries.” While indeed recyclable, many contain toxic material like cadmium and lead that can leach into the environment. Such substances, if not well handled, according to Ogwal, have the potential for serious health and environmental impact. “Oil spills are terrible, but they don’t continually leak toxins over time the way discarded batteries can,” he says.

More specifically, the issue of battery disposal is at a premium as renewable energy adoption accelerates globally. As good as that may sound, batteries are quite fundamental in storing that energy, but what happens to those batteries at the end of their life? According to Ogwal, “We may be replacing one environmental problem with another.” He colourfully paints a grim prospect of a “battery cemetery” piling up discarded, hazardous materials.

While some are calling for the country to abandon oil, Ogwal presents a “best-of-both-worlds” approach. He says responsible management would allow the coexistence of oil and renewable energy as part of a balanced portfolio in Uganda. “Investment in safe oil exploration could help us meet our economic growth needs while minimizing the chances of a battery-waste crisis,” he says.

Without doubt, the oil exploration projects in Uganda, led by East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), Total Energies and the CNOOC, have stirred up a storm of criticism from the usual suspect: foreign activists, environmental purists, and countries and countries whose economies were built on oil. They are shouting about environmental dangers, but are we seriously supposed to believe the voices, some of which come from nations that are still pumping oil from every last corner of their boarders?

Let us cut through the noise. Every possible step to safeguard Uganda’s environment has been implemented. CNOOC and EACOP did not jump into this project on a quirk, Environmental Impact Assessments were rigorously conducted, safety protocols are in place and local ecosystems have been factored into each and every decision.

So, what is the real issue here? It seems our path to self-sufficiency just does not sit well with the said critics.

Oil can make the Ugandan economy change. Just imagine new roads, improved hospitals, improved education, and thriving local businesses-just about everything. This is not just an oil issue; this is about the future of Uganda. The revenues from oil will bring jobs and infrastructure that will give our young people a reason to stay, work, and thrive in their communities instead of going off seeking greener pastures. This could mean a self-sustaining Uganda, empowered from our own resources as opposed to perpetual begging from the West.

But maybe that is the problem with some of our critics: a self-sufficient Uganda would mean no more foreign aid, no more foreign influence, and no more foreign “advisors” telling us what we ought to and ought not to do. We would be standing upon our two feet, and perhaps to some, that independence is just not good enough.

Let us not forget that those who would lecture us on the perils of our oil development are not standing in villages lacking paved roads or communities with limited healthcare and educational opportunities. They are observing from comfortable, industrialized countries built on the very same resource they now wish for us to leave in the ground.

So, let us be bold enough to look aside at the hypocrisy, let us seize this opportunity and build the Uganda that we deserve. Oil is not just a resource; it’s an opportunity toward a better future, and Ugandans deserve a chance at prosperity just like any other nation. EACOP and CNOOC are not threats to our environment but pathways to self-sufficiency and success.

The writer is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.