President Xi and Biden Meeting Tomorrow: What Are the Issues and Should We Expect News?

By Allawi Ssemanda

After meeting his Russian counterpart in Geneva, in June this year, U.S president Joe Biden told journalists that there are no secret codes to foreign policy. President Putin on the other hand told journalists; “such meetings are meant to save the world from nuclear destruction” and find solutions to world challenges. All this sounded comical as two leaders supposedly on a mission to save the world failed to hold a joint press conference despite being in the same city. They all addressed press minutes apart where they used sinister arguments and took swipes at each other’s countries.

Back to Xi-Biden virtual meeting! It is coming at a time when relations between the two countries are at its worst. Issues ranging from trade, technology, alleged influence peddling, military activities, origins of Covid-19 and human rights have always been cited as catalyst for animosity between Washington and Beijing. It is coming just days after visitation of U.S lawmakers to Taiwan, an Island China considers its breakaway territory. Indeed, Beijing described the visit an “act of provocation.

This meeting is coming less than two weeks after Pentagon harshly criticised Beijing alleging China tested hypersonic missiles. Indeed, U.S’ Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, compared alleged hypersonic missile test to a Sputnik moment, referring to the Soviet satellite launch that sparked a Cold War arms race. Days later, U.S also tested hypersonic missiles it accused China of testing! Indeed, in past few months, the U.S has been busy building military alliances analysts say China is the target. Alliances include AUKUS which will see Washington give Australia nuclear powered submarines and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) comprising of U.S, Australia, India and Japan.

While Biden administration says is willing to dialogue with Beijing, such talks must be sincere and mutual respect must be at centre. This means the U.S dropping support for separatists in Taipei which China considers a redline. Beijing has already indicated readiness to work with the U.S on condition of mutual respect stressing; both countries will gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation,Cooperation is the only right choice.”

If this is the case, Monday’s meeting will solve the obvious over-the-top ideological rhetoric and provoking hints seen during Trump administration and its failure to understand need for the two world’s leading economies to cooperate in addressing world’s challenges and other crude policy excuses that were overly ineffective and costly for both.

With a more professional and well-coordinated policy processes in Washington, and a president willing to read and absorb briefings of intelligence community and take experts advice, my view is that Monday’s meeting will pave way for further dialogue to address issues that affect the relationship of the two world’s biggest economies.

From military analysis, after U.S’ humiliation in Afghanistan, the U.S is arguably aware that when it comes to protecting national sovereignty, possibly, not even can AUKUS or QUAD can stop Beijing from protecting One China policy.

However, this is not failure to acknowledge that though such meetings are important, it is always not easy to strike a common ground. U.S considers China’s progress unacceptable for Washington fears this will limit her hegemonic tendences and global dominance the U.S enjoyed as unchallenged super power since 1990s. In international politics, the endgame of superpower contestation and claims of protecting human rights and the so-called democracy liberals claim has never been achieving a peaceful world free of nuclear weapons.

The logic that guides the so-called liberals, democrats and superpowers is just the logic of power and schemes on how to maintain dominance. History has taught us that when it comes to foreign policy, those who claim to champion democracy are even worse than those they brand autocratic. Arguably, some democracies’ foreign policy is largely characterised by imperialistic tendences – colonialism is the best example here. If compared with those they brand authoritarian, is mutual benefit and improving lives and livelihoods of people not just in home countries but globally.

What is striking is that as the so-called liberals attempt to spread their dominance and control emergence of ambitious powers in different regions and continents plus in their formerly strongholds, propaganda and politics comes in to play and in long run, lives of many have been cut short.  

With such background, there is need for the U.S to redefine its China policy and agree to bitter fact that gone are the days when they freely dominated entire Asian region. Pondering at this, a few questions come up: Will the Biden Administration follow Trump’s path of demonising and blaming China, referring to Beijing as U.S’ existential threat?

Blame China is tact often employed by both Republicans and Democrats in their effort to scare Americans so as to get their support for huge defence budget. The notion that China is a threat to the U.S and the world order is definitely unjustified. Chinese president Xi Jinping has been clear that China does not seek to dominate. Wonder, why would Beijing want to disrupt current order as some hawks in Washington claim yet the same order enabled Beijing navigate to move to the top?

With this, one can confidently say the fears that Washington claims Beijing poses are inaccurate, and grossly exaggerated. This lays a foundation for a second question: Will Biden appreciate such facts and accurately define where and how China is a threat to Washington as some hawks claim? Such an approach will present Washington in a more sober and pragmatic stance and hence, ease relations and any dealings with Beijing. Otherwise, the Biden presidency risks being swallowed with unsubstantiated characterisation at Capitol Hill who believe in Libido dominand concept – the urge to dominate and back those who don’t believe in a fair competition which will prioritise nothing but a zero-sum game, move with containment methods instead of the much-needed constructive forms of engagement which would bring positive results for both.

The other key question is: Biden administration accept the new bitter reality that gone is the era of Unipolar when the U.S enjoyed military dominance across maritime areas of Asia and that such an era will certainly not return in the near future. It is important to note that U.S politicians still reflexively boast of America’s military might and the supposed necessity of the U.S to maintain unchanged level of their military dominance in the region of the Asian Pacific while moving to China’s borders as they claim their so-called “freedom of action”. Arguably, it is naïve of Capitol Hill politicians to maintain that poorly conceived notion – that U.S military predominance can help to ensure order, and it is also delusional to imagine that the U.S has that much needed financial muscle of ensuring they retain the kind of military prowess very close to China as they wish to.

The open secret is that the world is headed to a de facto balance of power in Western Pacific between U.S and allies on one hand and China on the other. The trouble is that by nature, such balances often are risky – tempting each side to test its strength and leverage. In this case, the issue of Taiwan and Chinese maritime disputes with the United States and her allies may become a reality. However, if the Biden approach to the Taiwan question is respecting China’s one country policy, these talks will produce good results.

In sum, U.S’ problem is not China and has never been China. It is what John J. Mearsheimer called “Tragedy of Great Power Politics” – that is, a former super power failing to contain emerging powers.

The writer is the executive director Development Watch Centre, a foreign policy think tank, and author of Global Governance and Norm Contestation: How BRICS is Reshaping World Order.

 

 

Politicizing Covid-19 on global stage is very dangerous.

By Allawi Ssemanda.

In 1907, then United Kingdom’s ambassador to the United States of America (US), Lord Bryce is quoted to have observed; “The subject of foreign policy in the United States is like the subject of snakes in Ireland. There are no snakes in Ireland.” This statement has been described by several foreign policy scholars to have meant that in the US, foreign policy making has no style, and a designed process but rather national interests which is purely politics of promoting US’ global hegemony.

Indeed, after several hours of closed-door meeting with Russian president, Vladimir Putin on 16th June, 2021, US president Joe Biden told journalists that there are no secret codes to foreign policy, that it is all about personal relationships, and about human nature. In the same week, shortly after the G7 summit in the United Kingdom, president Biden told journalists that he had given Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) 90 days to investigate the origin of Coronavirus. Biden supported this arguing that in the US, there are two elements of the intelligence community one believing the virus had a natural origin while the other leaned towards a lab leak theory.

Important to note is that while president Biden ordered CIA led inquiry on origins of Coronavirus, an on-the-ground investigation lead by experts from World Health Organization (WHO), a body mandated to carry out such inquires earlier this year concluded their phase one findings, observing that it was “extremely unlikely” that coronavirus started in a laboratory.   Upon this background, one can reason that with WHO primary report out and their investigations ongoing, any country to announce a parallel investigation lead by political appointees should not only worry us but inspire us to ask more questions.

As Indira Ghandi taught us, questioning is the basis of all progress, and those who don’t question are condemned to live in bondage. With that in mind, we must question president Biden’s intentions and interest in ordering a parallel inquiry.  Is it that the Biden administration does not trust WHO which the US joined on his first day in office after reversing his predecessor’s decision to withdraw U.S membership? How can we trust CIA report which receives orders from only Washington? Whose interest will their report be? Is President Biden continuing Trump era policy of America first which he often denounced for Isolating the US from international community? Is he declaring that anything done by international experts but without full say and control of the US is null and void?  Is it that the US knows the origins of Corona virus and want to influence the findings to hide those “facts”? These are some of questions that we should put before the US for their uncalled-for path. There are several reasons to look at the move with scepticism;

First and foremost, president Biden’s ordered inquiry exposes hypocrisy in Washington and casts doubt in their readiness to support the world in confronting the pandemic. It should be recalled that shortly after taking over office, president Biden wrote to the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN) withdrawing his predecessors’ decision to withdraw US’ membership from WHO. It was actually on his first day in office when he wrote and informed UN SG that; “The United States intends to remain a member of the World Health Organization, …the WHO plays a crucial role in the world’s fight against the deadly covid-19 pandemic as well as countless other threats to global health and health security.  The United States will continue to be a full participant…,” read his letter in parts.  Isn’t it surprising that just months later, the president is discrediting the very organization he praised?

Secondary, during his campaigns and his first days in office, president Biden promised the world that “America is Back” as he criticised his predecessor, Donald Trump of Isolating the U.S from international community which is exactly what he is doing by setting a parallel investigation against international community supported inquiry which is ongoing under WHO.

The other important issue we should note is that CIA which president Biden ordered to do investigations cannot be trusted to do an independent investigation free from lies and political influence. For example, during a Q&A discussion at Texas A&M university on 15th April 2019, then Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, told his audience that; “I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole… we had entire training courses.” After an outburst of laughter from his audience, secretary Pompeo added: “It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment.” With Pompeo’s admission’s that at CIA lying, stealing and cheating are part of their “training courses,” one wonders if their inquiry won’t be full of lies. It is not a surprise that the weapons of mass destruction CIA told the world that Iraq had to date cannot be traced.

All the above points at one key factor; politics. The U.S has always wanted to appear superior in global affairs. Put differently, they suffer from Libido dominandi, a Latin or the urge to dominate everything that they see a WHO lead inquiry with experts may not give exactly what they want. When covid-19 broke out, as Beijing took tough steps in containing the spread of the virus, Washington branded their efforts draconian measures. Instead of learning from measures China employed in containing the coronavirus, the US chose denial and as tens of thousands of people lost lives to covid-19, some pundits and politicians started blame game possibly to divert people from critiquing their weakness in containing the virus. After assuming office, president Biden promised to vaccinate 100 million Americans in his first 100 days – a figure they missed. Instead of focusing on producing more vaccines and supporting efforts to contain the spread of the virus not just in the U.S but also in developing world, Biden administration is now choosing to concentrate on finding origin of coronavirus – work which is already in progress by respectable and mandated organization, WHO. Could it be that the administration is trying to hide from their failure to deliver on vaccinating 100 million people in 100 days? 

Lastly, according to Dominic Dwyer, an Australian immunologist and a member of WHO’s team of expert, there is no evidence backing the “lab leak” theory and lab leak narrative is political and plays in interests of some countries.  From the views above, a conclusion can be made that as president Biden announced that “America is back,” let Washington come back joining the world in fighting the spread of covid-19 by supporting other countries by making vaccines readily available, and supporting research and science.

Allawi Ssemanda is a Research Fellow with Development Watch Centre; a foreign policy think tank.

 

 

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