WHERE THE WEST AND CHINA HAVE LED US: COUNTING GAINS AND LOSSES

The year 2024 has come to an end, and we find ourselves in that familiar beginning of a new year moment where we look back at the past year’s events much like flipping through an annual financial report.

But, instead of profit margins and balance sheets, we are trying to reflect on the actions, decisions, and strategies that shaped the global landscape last year.

If there is that one thing that dominated the headlines the last year, it’s the dynamic duo of the West and China.

Just like an annual report provides clarity on where an establishment stands, it is time for Uganda and Africa at large to assess where the West and China have led us and what the next chapter holds.

As Uganda and definitely much of Africa, continues to play host to foreign powers, it’s time to take stock. Who’s winning? Who’s losing? And more importantly whether there has been a move towards tangible economic progress?

This article takes a final glance at 2024 as we begin 2025, it delves into the profound impact of their co-operations and partnerships in Africa, while examining the moves that defined 2024. Buckle up as we dive into last year’s most riveting global showdown.

In the recent years the relationship between China and Africa has yielded substantial returns across key sectors transforming infrastructure, boosting trade advancing industrialization, and driving economic growth.

As we review the results, its clear that the investments and collaborations are setting Uganda and the broader continent on a path to long term prosperity. Below is the assessment of the gains in tangible terms, measuring the impact of this partnership on Uganda’s development.

Kampala-Entebbe Expressway: The completion of the USD 1.3 billion Expressway, has transformed Uganda’s transport landscape. This 51-kilometers road now connects Uganda’s capital with its international airport, reducing travel time by 30 minutes and enhancing trade and tourism.

Karuma Hydroelectric Power Plant: with an investment of USD 1.7 billion, this project is set to add 600 MW of electricity to Uganda’s grid, addressing the country’s energy deficit and supporting industrial growth.

These infrastructure projects have reduced logistical costs and improved regional connectivity, contributing to a 3.5 percent increase in GDP growth. Uganda’s ranking in the world bank’s logistics performance index has improved boosting investors’ confidence.

Uganda’s trade with China has also reached USD 2.7 billion, with exports valued at USD 800 Million. Major exports included; coffee, minerals, while imports from China included machinery and electronics, accounted for USD 1.9 billion.

About USD 120 Million has also been invested by China in Education and Skills Development. Over 2,000 Ugandans have received scholarships to study in China, with 400 students graduating in fields such as engineering, energy, and agriculture.

These educational investments have equipped Uganda’s youth with technical skills, reducing unemployment rates in several sectors and as a result there has been a reduction in national unemployment.

It would be a mischief if China’s investment in Uganda’s Oil and Gas sector is ignored. China National Offshore Oil Corporation’s (CNOOC) has so far invested about USD 1.4 billion in Uganda’s oil sector.

Uganda’s economic future, in many ways, is now paved by Chinese concrete, and while it sounds like a fairy tale of infrastructure, this is the undeniable fact.

On the other side there is a symphony of good intentions and familiar missed opportunities. Let’s talk about the west, the United States, the European Union and their assorted agencies have spent decades agitating about democracy, good governance, and human rights. They have managed to tick off a few boxes in Uganda, funding healthcare programs, agricultural initiatives, and governance reforms.

Take USAID’s efforts in Uganda, sure, there has been progress in health and food security, but what about jobs? What about the kind of industrialization that could make Uganda self-sufficient, and not just reliant on aid? The West’s model often focuses on alleviating the symptoms of poverty without addressing the root causes.

Western aid flows in like a river generous and well-meaning but its often not connected to the kind of long-term economic investment that could truly propel Uganda into the future.

In addition, while western companies have been having a foothold in Uganda and Africa, they have not been enthusiastic in investing in local enterprises to aid Uganda build its own industries.

Not only has the West ignored the real engine of economic growth, but they have also missed a vast opportunity by not embracing more directly the natural resources that Africa possesses. While China was building railways, the West was stalled in pushing environmental policies that clash with Africa’s needs to extract and exploit their resources for growth.

China, on the other hand, has no qualms: oil, coal, and gas are all part of their development strategy. To many nations on the continent with natural resources, the West’s refusal to engage with Africa’s resources sector in favor of a more ‘environmentally responsible approach’ is a luxury Africa simply cannot afford.

So, what do we have at the end of 2024? If you are Uganda, you have new roads, shiny power plants, and an expanding, if slightly precarious, economic footprint on the map.

However, the truth is that, the future of Africa will be determined by a tightrope balancing between the two forces. China offers infrastructure and trade, while the West offers ideals and humanitarian aid. But the real question is, Can Uganda-can Africa-find a way to leverage these investments for long-term, self-sustaining growth? Or will it continue to stand in the shadows of foreign powers, and always counting the gains and losses on a balance sheet that never seems to add up? Only time will tell. Though the answer is right in front of us.

The writer is a research fellow at the Sino-Uganda Research Centre