Less than a month since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, over two million five hundred thousand people have fled the country with over two million internally displaced as of today in a war analysts describe as the worst in Europe since World War two, yet there are no signs it is not about to end.
What is clear now is that as politicians in Washington and European Capitals announce back-to-back sanctions against Moscow and threats of total Western isolation against Kremlin, more than politicians, it is ordinary Ukrainians facing the wrath of Russia’s bombs!
Despite rounds of talks between Russia-Ukraine delegations at Belarus-Ukraine boarders and between foreign ministers of the two countries held in Turkey, not much has been achieved. This does not mean that diplomacy has failed and therefore should be abandoned! Actually, it is the very reason why we should pursue diplomatic path other than Washington’s view of supplying more weapons to besieged Ukraine. This is not to say that like Yemen which has been under Saudi backed coalition bombardment since 2014 with Western supplied weapons be ignored, but to emphasise that continued supplying of weapons to Ukraine will simply prolong the war and suffering of civilians especially that Moscow seems ready to double down attacks! Continued fighting will not end the suffering of people but dialogue in real and earnest terms can easily bring this war to an end.
As suggested by Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi in his 6 points in regard to the Ukraine question: the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and protected and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter be abided by all in real earnest; security of one country should not come at the expense of the security of other countries; calling on all parties to exercise the necessary restraint; support for all diplomatic efforts conducive to a peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis; direct dialogue and negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. Other than using UN to simply condemn Russia without suggesting how to stop the fighting, as Wang stressed: UN Security Council should play a constructive role in resolving the Ukraine issue, and “actions taken by the Security Council should help cool the situation and facilitate diplomatic resolution rather than fueling tensions and causing further escalation”.
While it may not be easy to engage in direct dialogue, signs are that it is not too late! Indeed, on Friday French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had a telephone conversation witht Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Whereas French Presidency says president Putin seemed not ready to announce cease fire which the two leaders demanded for as a condition for talks, the fact that these European leaders are willing to engage Moscow, it is a good start to start a diplomatic path. Therefore, France and Germany having openly declared their support to Ukraine, if joined by a neutral force like China can help to bring the two fighting sides to agreement and silence guns!
While Washington would play a role, one can argue that as of today, the US has no major constructive role to play for it is seen as a spoiler due to their hard stand when it comes to Russia’s security concerns which Moscow claims Washington ignored. In this conflict, the US cannot play a uniting role because Washington sees Russia’s action as Moscow’s direct Challenge to Washington and hence, it is very unlikely that the US would be ready to encourage Ukraine to consider some concession which arguably is key to ending this crisis. Also, shortly after Putin ordered his forces into Ukraine, president Biden announced that Putin’s action had closed any possibility of future engagements. With USA’s self-praise as an indomitable nation, it maybe very hard for them to make a quick U-turn and sit on same table, and for example encourage Ukraine where possible to accept concessions.
On the other hand, France can play a positive role considering the fact that even when Paris joined other countries in sanctioning and condemning Moscow, Paris has always suggested there is still possibility of diplomacy to work. Also, president Macron’s personal negotiation skills and influence in Europe can see him constructively playing a much-needed role. After all, while President Joe Biden once told us that there are no secret codes to foreign policy, that it is all about personal relationships, and about human nature. Equally, from the start, Germany was clear and against anything with potential of escalating the situation. Therefore, one can argue that they are ready to do whatever it takes to cool the situation.
Also, China can play a better role. Historically, when it comes to peace and security, China has the best record among major powers. It has never invaded other countries or engaged in proxy wars, nor have they ever participated in military bloc confrontations, according to facts and words of foreign minister, Wang Yi. Other than opposing power politics, and hegemonies, China has always campaigned for equality urging great powers to respect and uphold legitimate rights and interests of developing countries-be small or medium-sized. Beijing argues this is the sure way the world will achieve lasting peaceful and development stressing it as the best way of building of a community with a shared future for mankind.
If we critically analyse, words of president Zelensky, while responding to David Muir of ABC News on 08th who asked him: “What is your message to Vladimir Putin right now?” Muir had asked president Zelensky that to cease hostilities, Russia was demanding that Ukraine change its constitution to reject any intention to enter NATO and also to recognize Crimea as part of Russia as well as the other two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. Though president Zelensky did not directly say he was willing to compromise, his response suggested a change of tone responding that he was “ready for a dialogue.”
On Ukraine joining NATO, president Zelensky sounded ready for concession stressing that, “I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago, after we understood that … NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia.”
While, answering the question of if Ukraine was ready to let go the two self-declared republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, if compared to pre-war, president Zelensky appeared somehow reconciliatory noting that: “I think that items regarding temporarily occupied territories and pseudo-republics not recognized by anyone but Russia, we can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories will live on,” Zelensky said. “What’s important to me is how the people in those territories who want to be part of Ukraine are going to live.”
Looking at Ukrainian government’s official released full interview, president Zelensky noted he was ready for what he called a “collective security agreement” that would include Russia. If well analysed, all the above signals it is possible to have successful talks and hence, China, France and Germany should make quick steps in this direction.
Allawi Ssemanda is the Executive Director of Development Watch Centre; a foreign policy think tank.
