The Officially Unofficial Meeting Between Taiwan President and U.S Speaker McCarthy is A Cobweb of Politics
By Moshi Israel
The President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen recently embarked on a 10-day visit to central and northern America. This “transit diplomacy” included a stop in the United States amid protests from China. The latter sees the visit as a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is because China views Taiwan as an inalienable part of the mainland and expects both Washington and Taipei to adhere to the one-China policy. This policy has kept tensions at bay within the Taiwan Strait. However, recent actions from Washington through the Pelosi Taiwan visit and now Tsai-Ing Wen’s visit to the U.S. constantly create a trilateral nightmare.
On Wednesday last week, the president of Taiwan met with the Speaker of the U.S. House, Kevin McCarthy at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, Simi Valley-Los Angeles where the two reaffirmed the close ties between their countries. China on the other hand vowed to respond to this meeting which Beijing views as a provocation. Wary of China’s harsh response similar to that after the former Speaker Pelosi visit which some analysts described as poking China, Washington and Taipei took deliberate measures to present the meeting as unofficial and not a threat to the long-standing U.S. stance on the one-China policy. The president’s stops to the U.S. are not being called visits. Tsai’s office has called her stops unofficial and Washington refers to them as transits. This is all deliberately sending signals to Beijing that there should be no cause for alarm. Washington is carefully walking a tightrope. However, this “transit diplomacy” between top politicians from the two sides meeting on the U.S. soil is the first of its kind since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
It is in the interest of the world that the Taiwan situation does not escalate into another hot war. But this might be too much to expect from the China Hawks in Washington. This category is increasingly bipartisan with both Republicans and Democrats itching to prove who is tougher on China. The fact that anti-China sentiments are increasingly rampant in both parties, proves that the majority of the American public has bought into the ‘Stop China before it overtakes us’ sales speech. The anti-China coalition in Washington is a worrying development because it means American foreign policy will only get even more aggressive toward China. Therefore, the provocative relations with Taiwan in recent years only confirm the growing uneasiness with China in Washington.
China on the other hand has been largely reacting to U.S. provocation and double-speak. The meeting between Speaker McCarthy and President Tsai Ing-Wen is just the latest provocation. The president of Taiwan is in a tough situation where her DPP party faces an election early next year after being crushed in the local elections by the main opposition party KMT in November last year. Her party strongly opposes the 1992 consensus between officials of the PRC and Taiwan on the nature of their relations.
Coincidentally, as the current president of Taiwan ‘unofficially’ passes through the United States, the former president, Ma Ying-Jeoh, of the opposition party KMT visited Beijing on a cultural and academic exchange trip. The trip is also historical in that it’s the first of its kind by either a former or current leader of Taiwan since the revolution in 1949. The Former president struck a conciliatory tone and reiterated the fact that the people across the Taiwan Strait were all of one race. He encouraged closer ties with Beijing and asked for a reduction in tensions stressing that; “the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese. And both are descendants of the Yan and Yellow Emperors.”
The only viable solution to tensions in the Taiwan Strait lies with mainland China and Taiwan and the U.S stopping misleading separatists in Taipei with their so-called “unwavering support.” Polls conducted in Taiwan show that the majority of the 23 million people of Taiwan, prefer to maintain the status quo. Moreover, it is much more realistic for Taiwan to maintain good relations with China because of the proximity of the latter. There is no scenario in which hostility to the mainland favors the island. In case of military confrontation, it is not a guarantee that the United States will be in a position to defend Taiwan. Even under such a scenario, it is Taiwan that would suffer the biggest destruction. On this note, former president Ma Ying-Jeoh is spot on in encouraging closer ties with Beijing.
Current president Tsai is walking a dangerous path. Since her election in 2016, Taiwan has lost nine diplomatic allies to Beijing with Honduras being the latest to cut ties with the island this year on March 26. Now, Taiwan has only 13 diplomatic allies mostly island nations from the Caribbean and south pacific, Paraguay, Vatican City, and Estwani in southern Africa. This trajectory is an indication that Taiwan should conduct relations with China without being influenced by third parties. The people of China and Taiwan are one and despite their disagreements, they should always amicably address their differences.
The Writer is a Senior Research Fellow at DWC.
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