By Moshi Israel
The world as it is today is largely in disarray. The scenario is akin to that of a civil war where leaders are engaged in power struggles as the world around them burns to ashes. This is what is happening now, battles of hegemony and dominance are becoming more prevalent and defined. It is no longer shameful to threaten war or annihilation of the entire human species. Global peace and order are at risk because states have doubled down on taking the route of political realism. The weak are preyed upon by the strong and the interests of countries come above all else even at the expense of other’s interests.
Let us begin in Eastern Europe, in Ukraine. The war has now gone on for over two years with no end in sight. The Russians will not relent until they achieve their objectives of having a neutral and disarmed neighbor. Ukraine backed by the West has chosen to fight until the last Ukrainian in a bid to be part of Europe and out of Russia’s grip. The West on the other hand has openly stated that Ukraine is a unique opportunity to weaken Russia and inflict a strategic defeat on it. Therefore, the theater of war must continue until one side blinks. China is the only country that has pushed for a political settlement in Ukraine, emphasizing the need to respect sovereign territory and to address legitimate security concerns of all countries. This has been pushed by the Chinese despite them having a limitless friendship with Russia. Therefore, while all countries have clear allies and corners in this war, China has been politically mature enough to suggest a compromise that addresses both warring country’s concerns.
Europe is now at a crossroads. They have two major questions to answer; the first question is the Russian question and the second one is the China question. On the first question, the continent is running headfirst into a potential continental confrontation akin to the World Wars. There is an anti-Russian resurgence in Europe stemming from the Balkan states. These states are leading the drive into the new normal where Russia is seen as the major threat to the rest of the continent.
The second question which pertains to China may not be existential but is extremely important. Europe is still figuring out how to deal with China especially given China’s tumultuous relations with Big brother across the Atlantic. The recent visits by President Xi to Paris, Belgrade and Budapest have highlighted the contrast within European politics. France, knows it needs China but also has to trade carefully so as not to sour relations with their key ally, the US. China’s close friendship with Russia also complicates this further. The same goes for the majority of the European Union. Relations with China in Europe heavily depend on politics from the other side of the ocean. If it were completely up to Europe, it is evident that they would have preferred to have cordial relations with both china and USA. On the other hand, there are some in Europe such as Serbia, and Hungary, the two allies, President Xi visited that see no qualms dealing with an increasingly inevitable China. These countries signed even more trade and partnerships agreements with China during Xi’s visit. The message President Xi brought to Europe was simply that; China is a fact of life and Europe has to deal with it.
Across the Atlantic, The United States remains consistent with its Foreign policy goals despite many thinking otherwise. The goal is as simple as maintaining US influence across the world and defending their interests and national security above all else. Now, how they go about this is a discussion for another time. The major point here is, as China’s influence grows, it inevitably collides with the influence of the United States and the latter is not accustomed to being challenged by a near peer power. China insists that its development is peaceful and seeks collaboration rather than confrontation. A peaceful world entirely depends on the US perception of China’s rampant rise.
Recently, the world was rocked by news of the death of the Iranian President, his foreign Minister and other key figures of the IRGC. This news left many in major political centers biting their nails at the prospect of the new emerging reality in the middle East. The cause of the accident was not immediately clear and that was dangerous because if a finger was pointed at anyone, it meant a potential new regional war. Many friends of Iran reached out to assist the country and it is yet to be seen what these developments will mean for the Middle East.
The war in Gaza is another political hotspot that has topped debates around the globe. The failure to release hostages by Hamas and lack of adequate humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people have made the Gaza war into one of the most gruesome conflicts in recent memory. China has constantly called for a cease fire and is currently pushing to have Palestine recognized as a state by the united Nations. The reality that the ICC might issue warrants against top leaders of Hamas and Israel has taken many by surprise. It is after all, an open secret that the Criminal court is reserved mainly for criminals in the Global South, this is no longer hearsay, as the Prosecutor Karim Khan confirmed it in an interview with CNN. We in the Global South can only watch as intrigued spectators as to where all this is headed.
In Africa, the DRC is still facing numerous insurgencies and the political climate in the country is one of uncertainty. In the volatile Sahel belt, the US has finally agreed to withdraw its troops from Niger in September. All this happens as the Global South largely improves ties with Beijing.
The Writer is a Senior Research Fellow at Development Watch Centre.
