China has once again proved its signature ability to translate strategic patience into geopolitical advantage by how it has responded to the war against Iran by the United States and Israel.
Diplomatically, China has stood with Iran as an ally. It has been firm in its criticism of the aggression Tehran has suffered. However, it has also exercised practical restraint to avoid a regional conflagration. This strategy has allowed Beijing to advance its interests without absorbing the costs of the conflict, which have taken a toll on the three principal actors. It has been reported that the U.S. Treasury has already lost about $37.5 billion in direct military operations, maintenance, and projected expenses, but the total cost is estimated to be even much higher. To make this cost more relatable, just imagine that America has sunk the entire GDP of countries such as Senegal, Zimbabwe, Zambia, South Sudan, Guinea, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Mali, Botswana, Benin, Gabon, Niger, Chad, Madagascar, Mauritius, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Namibia, Malawi, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Togo, Eswatini, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Djibouti, Burundi, Central African Republic, etc., on this war.
No country has maintained a high altitude of respect for and promotion of the principle of sovereignty and non-interference as China has since the 1950s. It has been consistent in its criticism of the United States and Israel for violating Iran’s sovereignty and warned them of the dangers of externally imposing regime change. This should not even be termed a China position since it is actually an objection framed in the language of the UN Charter. China has emphasised these similar principles in dealing with Syria, Libya, and Ukraine. However, respect for the principles of non-intervention, territorial integrity, and opposition to unilateral sanctions also tie China’s hands from intervening physically when its allies are in trouble.
However, at the United Nations Security Council, China has thrown its diplomatic weight behind its Iranian allies to block the United States, Israel and Gulf States from enforcing their proposals for shipping escorts through the Strait of Hormuz. In March 2026, the Chinese ambassador at the UN vetoed a sanctions resolution on the Iran conflict at the Security Council. Without being directly entangled in the conflict, China has pushed back against Washington and insisted that the deeper causes of the conflict be addressed instead of dealing with the symptomatic outcomes of the war.
China has also been the fulcrum around which mediation efforts of this conflict have revolved. It dispatched a special envoy for Middle East affairs to pursue mediation and push for de-escalation in the region in March of this year. China has persuaded all parties involved, including Gulf cooperation leaders, to find political and diplomatic means to resolve this catastrophic conflict. President Xi Jinping has personally been involved in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz diplomatically. Rarely do leaders of great powers get involved in diplomatic appeals despite the potency of their military muscles.
China’s seeming diplomatic passivity, characterised by its signature restraint from aggressive manoeuvres, has come to be how it gains strategic advantage from the United States, which often suffers the deleterious consequences of the conflicts it starts or supports. China simply has to step back, watch, and be patient while America proactively destroys its diplomatic image, erodes its soft power, and cultivates enemies around the world. For China, omission is not inaction. It is a prudent strategy.
Perhaps the most delicate balance for China in this conflict is between its partnership with Iran as a source of discounted oil and a reliable counterweight to America’s influence in the Persian Gulf versus its substantial economic interests in the region. China is a strong economic actor in the Gulf, with deep commercial ties to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf Cooperation Council states. It therefore has to walk a tightrope in this conflict to maintain its trade and investments across the Gulf without betraying its commitment to Iran.
China might be the only country able to endure the prolonged closure and serious disruption of the Strait of Hormuz because it can find and consume discounted Iranian and Russian crude that Western sanctions have pushed off the open market. It is also blessed with an abundance of diversified suppliers and strategic energy reserves to buffer it from this regional instability. Therefore, China’s relative standing among its East and South Asia neighbours is much more resilient.
The writer is a senior research fellow, Development Watch Centre.
